The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, analyses why the deaths of Iran’s President and Foreign Minister, Ebrahim Raisi and Hossein Amirabdollahian, doesn’t necessarily represent a shift in global politics. She explains that the probable candidates to replace Raisi are likely to endorse a continuation of current Iranian foreign policy, and any changes will be hard to notice for external observers.
Following Iran’s direct attack on Israel on 13th April, Hemidreaza Azizi examines both the official and unofficial discourse in Iran in recent days. He writes that most political experts and analysts in Iran seem to agree that Iran’s goal has been to restore deterrence and not to enter into war. However, concerns about the outbreak of an unintended war and its destructive consequences appear to be more pronounced among experts than among official figures.
Meir Javedanfar writes that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war mean that a nuclear Iran may no longer be viewed as a threat by the Russian leadership. Javedanfar argues that a nuclear Iran could boost Russia’s leverage in the Middle East and divert attention from its war in Europe.
One year on from the death of Jina Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s morality police, which sparked unprecedented protests across the country in support of women’s rights, Dr. Azadeh Zamirirad calls for European decision-makers to take a feminist approach to their foreign policy with Iran and in their response to Iran’s feminist uprising.
In May 2023 , the ELN and Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF) held a track 1.5 meeting in London featuring a range of European, American, Asian and Iranian experts to assess three possible scenarios that could come about should attempts to revive the JCPOA fail: resumption of nuclear negotiations, building regional solutions, and regional conflict. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Roxane Farmanfarmaian captures the core findings in this report.
Hamidreza Azizi examines reactions in Iran to the Wagner groups rebellion. He writes that the wide range of responses to the mutiny, from government statements and state media to independent analysts, illustrates a broader trend of polarisation in Iranian foreign policy that has been increasingly visible in recent years in a multitude of areas, from nuclear negotiations to geopolitical alliances.