Our Policy Research Programmes

The risk of nuclear weapons use is rising, not receding. Intensifying geopolitical competition, the erosion of arms control agreements, and growing pressures on the global non-proliferation regime are increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and undermining decades of crucial progress toward disarmament.

The ELN’s Nuclear and Multilateral Disarmament Programme works to advance sustainable and irreversible reductions in nuclear and other weapons. It focuses on strengthening the international frameworks, legal instruments, and cooperative arrangements that underpin disarmament and non-proliferation, while addressing the political and technical barriers that continue to impede progress.

Combining the work of leading policy experts and the collective experience of the ELN’s robust cross-national network, the programme develops realistic, actionable policy options and builds support for disarmament across Europe and beyond.

Through focused research, high-level dialogue, and targeted engagement, it works directly with decision-makers to shape policy debates, strengthen key multilateral processes, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and drive practical outcomes. By leveraging the ELN’s unique convening power, the programme translates analysis into impact, reinforcing international law, revitalising cooperation, and advancing the urgent conditions needed for meaningful and lasting disarmament.

Nuclear deterrence continues to underpin Euro-Atlantic security, but the environment in which it operates is becoming more complex and volatile. Intensifying geopolitical competition, rapid technological change, and increasing integration of conventional and nuclear postures are reshaping deterrence dynamics, while compressed decision-making timelines heighten the risks of misperception and unintended escalation.

Deterrence is often treated as stable and predictable. In practice, it is shaped by human judgement, cognitive bias, organisational pressures, and ambiguous signalling. Measures intended to reassure or stabilise can be interpreted in unintended ways, creating escalation pathways that are difficult to anticipate or control.

The ELN’s Nuclear Deterrence Programme examines how deterrence functions in real-world conditions, focusing on how decision-makers interpret signals, assess risk, and make escalation judgements under uncertainty. It brings together policy analysis, behavioural insights, and practitioner experience to identify where risks are most acute.

Through research, dialogue, and convening, the programme translates analysis into practical recommendations shaped with those directly responsible for security decision-making. By leveraging ELN’s unique network and access, it drives real-world policy impact, working to reduce nuclear risks, strengthen crisis management, and help prevent catastrophic conflict.

The rapid integration of emerging and disruptive technologies into nuclear decision-making is introducing new and poorly understood risks. Advances in artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and data systems are becoming increasingly entangled with nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3), reshaping how information is processed, decisions are made, and crises unfold. While these technologies may enhance speed and situational awareness, they also risk compressing decision-making timelines and introducing new pathways to miscalculation and unintended escalation.

The ELN’s Nuclear Weapons and New Technologies Programme addresses these challenges by analysing how technological change is transforming nuclear risk, and by developing practical, policy-relevant solutions. It focuses on the risks arising from human-machine interaction, automation bias, and system vulnerabilities, while identifying opportunities to strengthen resilience and safeguards within nuclear decision-making systems.

Through cutting-edge research, collaborative projects, and sustained engagement with policymakers and practitioners, the programme translates complex technical issues into actionable recommendations. Leveraging ELN’s multinational network and partnerships, it works to raise awareness, close critical knowledge gaps, and drive the adoption of risk reduction measures, helping ensure that technological innovation does not outpace the safeguards needed to prevent nuclear catastrophe.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has fundamentally destabilised European security and sharply increased the risks of escalation and wider conflict. The prospect of direct military confrontation between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community is now more acute, more sustained, and more unpredictable than at any point in decades, while the broader European security order continues to fragment under pressure.

The ELN’s Russia and European Security Programme addresses these risks by combining forward-looking analysis with practical policy options to manage confrontation and shape a more stable long-term security environment. It examines the evolving European security architecture, including the future role of institutions such as the OSCE and the prospects for arms control. At the same time, it analyses Russian foreign and security policy, assessing threat perceptions, military posture, and strategic intent across Europe and Eurasia.

A core focus of the programme is identifying realistic pathways to reduce escalation risks, strengthen crisis management, and support political processes under conditions of deep mistrust. Through sustained Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogue, it convenes policymakers, experts, and practitioners from across Europe, the United States, and beyond, preserving channels of communication, testing policy-relevant ideas, and working to prevent further deterioration in European security.