ELN Senior Associate Fellow, Sir Adam Thomson, explores how Europe and Russia might navigate security after the war in Ukraine. Before debating end-states or shared rules, both sides should first agree on “process principles” – practical, step-by-step guidelines to manage confrontation, reduce escalation risks, and gradually foster a more stable, long-term coexistence.
Russia’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine depends on its economic base. YGLN member Sinikka Parviainen argues wartime mobilisation has enabled defence production growth despite sanctions, but deep structural weaknesses are accumulating, signalling long-term fragility. Euro-Atlantic policy should intensify targeted economic pressure while preparing for a weakened yet enduring Russian military and political threat.
Former and serving senior officials, military leaders, and experts from across the Euro-Atlantic region call for support for space security and stability.
Iran is at a boiling point. In January, mass protests broke out across the country, and many thousands of people were wounded and killed. Meanwhile, the US has moved an aircraft carrier and a number of destroyers close to Iran in a military threat which remains unclear in its aims. To untangle these and many other threads, ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El welcomes back Iran specialist Roxane Farmanfarmaian, her co-Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, for a deep and fascinating examination of Iran at a crossroads.
On Saturday, 10 January, Finland’s withdrawal from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention or ‘Ottawa Treaty’, will come into effect. This follows the earlier withdrawals of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia. Gary Toombs writes that while landmines may seem appealing as cheap, simple tools of defence, in reality, they are militarily outdated, strategically counterproductive, and devastating in humanitarian, economic, and environmental terms. States on the path to leaving the treaty should reconsider, as withdrawal would not strengthen their security but would undermine international law, erode alliances, and cause generational harm.
The recent UK Strategic Defence Review and the French National Strategic Review both stress the importance of the readiness of European countries to withstand and recover from a wide variety of threats. ELN network member Nicholas Dungan writes that business leaders need to seize the initiative and assume their own responsibility for the implementation of a whole-of-society comprehensive security model across the European continent, together with their political and military counterparts.