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Commentary

Iran: The implications of President Raisi’s death

The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, analyses why the deaths of Iran’s President and Foreign Minister, Ebrahim Raisi and Hossein Amirabdollahian, doesn’t necessarily represent a shift in global politics. She explains that the probable candidates to replace Raisi are likely to endorse a continuation of current Iranian foreign policy, and any changes will be hard to notice for external observers.

22 May 2024 | Jane Kinninmont
Commentary

Why the Ukraine and Gaza wars mean Russia could now support a nuclear-armed Iran

Meir Javedanfar writes that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war mean that a nuclear Iran may no longer be viewed as a threat by the Russian leadership. Javedanfar argues that a nuclear Iran could boost Russia’s leverage in the Middle East and divert attention from its war in Europe.

3 April 2024 | Meir Javedanfar
Report

Workshop report: Track 1.5 Dialogue on Iran, the JCPOA and future scenarios

In May 2023 , the ELN and Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF) held a track 1.5 meeting in London featuring a range of European, American, Asian and Iranian experts to assess three possible scenarios that could come about should attempts to revive the JCPOA fail: resumption of nuclear negotiations, building regional solutions, and regional conflict. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Roxane Farmanfarmaian captures the core findings in this report.

28 June 2023 | Roxane Farmanfarmaian
Commentary

View from Israel: Could Netanyahu attack Iran’s nuclear program? It’s not so easy

Even if Israel’s controversial new government survives, new challenges – Iran’s improving relations with Russia, the China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and waning legitimacy at home and abroad – confront its military option against Iran, writes Meir Javedanfar.

18 May 2023 | Meir Javedanfar
Commentary

Can the EU solve Nagorno-Karabakh’s emergency?

This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.

10 May 2023 | Jane Kinninmont
Policy brief

Workshop report: Getting the JCPOA through 2022 and the US and Europe effectively engaged with Iran

In October, the ELN and Hanns Seidel Foundation partnered on a track 1.5 meeting in London which brought together a range of European and Iranian participants both to assess how the JCPOA could still be revived and to consider alternative scenarios in more detail. The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, captures the key highlights from the meeting.

14 December 2022 | Jane Kinninmont