In light of the recent Gaza ceasefire, ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El is joined by a Palestinian and an Israeli – Dr Tahani Mustafa (ECFR) and Dr Miriam Rosman (Dvorah Forum) – for a frank and raw discussion that lays bare both the hope and the deep divisions that persist in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Any sign that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear and missile programme would likely push Israeli decision makers to order the next major attack against targets in Iran. But this would require the consent of the Trump administration, writes Meir Javedanfar. The Israeli government considers its ability to get Trump to join the war in June a considerable accomplishment and will unlikely want to sacrifice this achievement by angering Trump, especially as the next US-Israel military-assistance MOU is up for renegotiation.
By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. He proposes a roadmap for phased cooperation with the IAEA, anchored in a parallel diplomatic track with Europe and the US. The window for such an approach may close within weeks; quick action on both sides is essential.
The possible fallout from the recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities requires sustainable approaches to nuclear non-proliferation that go beyond ad hoc solutions, writes Almuntaser Albalawi. Any new diplomatic solution should be embedded within a broader, long-term strategy that includes steps toward a regional arms control framework in the Middle East, addressing the underlying drivers of proliferation. The international community should continue supporting initiatives that sustain dialogue and strengthen regional partnerships.
The threat to global non-proliferation norms resulting from Israel’s attack on Iran is putting Europe’s commitment to multilateralism and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to a real test. ELN Policy & Research Director Oliver Meier writes that those countries still believing in multilateralism can bring their political, economic, and military clout to protect and strengthen the global non-proliferation regime. They must come down from the fence from which they have been observing the conflict and engage on the side of diplomacy and international law.
China has long contrasted itself with the United States, and the West more generally, as offering trade and aid to developing nations, without subjecting partners to moral lectures on democracy and human rights. President Trump, on his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, announced that the US would no longer tie aid and trade to democracy and human rights, signalling a further retreat from the post-WW2 order and posing an unexpected challenge to China’s no-strings-attached global strategy. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El explores this with Dr Ivana Karásková.