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Report

Towards a better understanding of human bias in nuclear decision-making and its interaction with emerging and disruptive technologies

This report by Ganna Pogrebna and ELN Senior Policy Fellow Rishi Paul presents findings from an ELN workshop that examined the ‘human’ and ‘machine’ components of bias and their points of interaction. The report highlights how human judgment and AI systems can interact in ways that reinforce, rather than reduce, risk.

27 February 2026 | Ganna Pogrebna and Rishi Paul
Policy brief

Gender backlash in disarmament and arms control: Safeguarding progress amid rising resistance

Gender perspectives are integral to credible, effective, and inclusive disarmament and arms control. This policy brief by ELN Policy Fellow Jana Baldus examines the gender backlash in multilateral disarmament and arms control, and its implications. It suggests two approaches to preserve progress on gender equality and intersectional gender perspectives and calls on states, international organisations, and civil society to act collectively to defend and further advance gender perspectives.

10 December 2025 | Jana Baldus
Policy brief

Tried and tested: Why the CTBT must be preserved

President Trump’s recent statement about the US resumption of nuclear testing has heightened concerns over a renewed arms race and the erosion of the global norm against nuclear testing enshrined in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). This new policy brief from the ELN’s Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty project argues that the CTBT reinforces the NPT by bolstering the nuclear non-proliferation norm and constraining the development of new nuclear warhead types: sustaining it is a strategic imperative. States Parties to the NPT must work together to strengthen the CTBT’s credibility and relevance to international security and prioritise collective multilateral action over short-term security gains.

4 December 2025
Policy brief

Widening the ceasefire toolkit: The promise of geophysical monitoring in Ukraine and beyond

Any monitoring mission deployed to observe an end to the hostilities in Ukraine is likely to incorporate a range of remote-sensing technologies to support its verification activities. Drawing on insights from the Norwegian research institute NORSAR’s real-time monitoring of the 2022 Ukraine conflict, this policy brief by Ben D.E. Dando, Kjølv Egeland, and Sebastian Schutte, finds that scientific advances and a growing availability of relevant data have made ‘seismo-acoustic’ analysis a cost-effective means of complementing, backing up, and in some cases replacing other ceasefire monitoring technologies.

17 October 2025 | Kjølv Egeland, Ben Dando and Sebastian Schutte
Policy brief

Guarding the unthinkable: Why regular fail-safe reviews are essential for responsible nuclear stewardship

In times of eroding arms control measures, nuclear-weapons states should consider enhancing transparency around their nuclear safety, security and reliability mechanisms (‘fail-safe’) to strengthen the risk reduction agenda. This policy brief, by ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer, shows how France and the UK can advance fail-safe individually and bilaterally, as well as in the P3 and P5 contexts. Non-nuclear-weapon states parties to the NPT and members of NATO could also support this.

2 October 2025 | Julia Berghofer
Report

Global nuclear fail-safe: Meeting summaries and related documents

Fail-safe reviews aim to strengthen safeguards to prevent the unauthorised, inadvertent, or mistaken use of a nuclear weapon. In collaboration with NTI, EASLG, and APLN, the ELN has been working to highlight the benefits of independent, internal “fail-safe” reviews in nuclear-armed states. These summaries are from ELN and APLN nuclear fail-safe workshops with non-governmental partners in China, India, Pakistan, France, and the UK.

13 August 2025
Policy brief

Technological complexity and risk reduction: Using digital twins to navigate uncertainty in nuclear weapons decision-making and EDT landscapes

This policy brief explores the integration of digital twin technologies into nuclear decision-making processes, assessing their potential to reduce risks stemming from emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs). It argues for international dialogue, transparency, and responsible innovation to prevent misuse, enhance NC3 resilience, and strengthen strategic stability through informed, scenario-based crisis simulations.

Policy brief

Turning down the heat: Addressing the growing salience of nuclear weapons

At the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee in New York this month a key issue likely to spark debate is the increasing salience of nuclear weapons. All five nuclear-weapon states under the NPT are increasing the role and significance of nuclear weapons in their military and security policies, at odds with the commitments accepted under the NPT. This new policy brief from the ELN’s Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty project examines this challenge and offers recommendations for states to address it within the NPT framework.

16 April 2025