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Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk Reduction

Nuclear weapons have unique catastrophic effects.  Reducing risks of their use is a key element of reducing existential risks. Our researchers and members study the intersections between nuclear weapons and emerging and disruptive technologies, as a contribution to nuclear risk reduction. Our research looks in particular at the growing complexity that the simultaneous emergence of multiple disruptive technologies introduces. We aim to provide guidance for decision makers on how they can maintain strategic stability and make progress towards arms control and disarmament under such circumstances. ELN experts also examine the question of whether other technologies could eventually present similarly catastrophic risks as nuclear weapons.

 

Commentary

AI enables strategic stupidity. That should terrify Europe

AI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to strikes in Iran, reduced risks enable operations with minimal casualties. That ease lowers the bar for war, leaving allies exposed to miscalculation and dependence on a partner willing to act without planning the aftermath.

14 April 2026 | Michal Onderco
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk Reduction
Report

Towards a better understanding of human bias in nuclear decision-making and its interaction with emerging and disruptive technologies

This report by Ganna Pogrebna and ELN Senior Policy Fellow Rishi Paul presents findings from an ELN workshop that examined the ‘human’ and ‘machine’ components of bias and their points of interaction. The report highlights how human judgment and AI systems can interact in ways that reinforce, rather than reduce, risk.

27 February 2026 | Ganna Pogrebna and Rishi Paul
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk Reduction