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Policy brief

The challenge of Russian dual-capable missiles

In a new policy brief, ELN Senior Associate Fellows Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams discuss how Russia’s superior quantities of dual-capable medium and short-range missiles affect the credibility of NATO’s nuclear posture. It also highlights how NATO’s expansion, the need to engage with more Alliance members, and any potential American withdrawal from Euro-Atlantic security architecture could affect NATO’s capacity for defence, as well as the role of deterrence and assurances in this nexus. 

17 July 2024 | Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams
Policy brief

NATO’s revival of collective defence and the challenge of national commitments

As leaders gather in Washington for a three day summit to mark NATO’s 75th anniversary, ELN Senior Associate Fellows Nicholas Williams and Simon Lunn analyse the re-emergence of collective defence as a priority within the alliance, and what it means for national governments. The paper argues that NATO’s regional plans should be the subject of parliamentary scrutiny by individual national parliaments to ensure that national commitments to NATO are consistent with the resources and political aims of their respective countries.

9 July 2024 | Nicholas Williams and Simon Lunn
Commentary

Time to engage seriously with the TPNW’s security concerns

Alexander Kmentt, Director for Disarmament, Arms Control, and Nonproliferation at the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and ELN Senior Network member, writes that opponents of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in nuclear-armed states should stop dismissing the treaty outright. Instead, they should begin addressing the legitimate security concerns surrounding deterrence that are raised by its supporters.

4 June 2024 | Alexander Kmentt
Commentary

Out of the shadow war? Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel

Following Iran’s direct attack on Israel on 13th April, Hemidreaza Azizi examines both the official and unofficial discourse in Iran in recent days. He writes that most political experts and analysts in Iran seem to agree that Iran’s goal has been to restore deterrence and not to enter into war. However, concerns about the outbreak of an unintended war and its destructive consequences appear to be more pronounced among experts than among official figures.

19 April 2024 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
Commentary

South Korea’s dangerous sense of isolation

Tanya Ogilvie-White writes that South Korea is becoming increasingly isolated from its Asia-Pacific security partners – Japan, Australia, the US, and the UK – in the way that it views the threat from North Korea. South Korea’s regional security partners’ increased focus on China and lessened attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme, risks isolating South Korea and undermining proliferation norms. Ogilvie-White argues that heightened collaborations are needed to avoid this.

17 April 2024 | Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White