Given Donald Trump’s unpredictability over what he may or may not do regarding the US presence in and support for NATO, there are a range of possible consequences arising from his quixotic actions for America’s longest-standing alliance. David Richards and Harlan Ullman unpack how Europe can compensate for any major US force reductions and what a revitalised NATO might look like.
Eighty-one years after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, what questions should the arms control community be asking itself? In this collection of reflections, ELN staff consider how the anniversary informs their work and what it means to keep the human consequences of nuclear weapons at the centre of debates on international security.
Former UK Labour MP Madeleine Moon argues that Britain’s political instability is the product of profound social and geopolitical change. With Andy Burnham in Number 10, Britain must think simultaneously about defence, the economy, technological advantage, and democratic institutions while building on reforms to pursue a whole-of-society approach to national resilience.
Andy Burnham has signalled that he wants to focus his energies on domestic policy, and his Cabinet appointments suggest he is willing to delegate responsibility to his top team – though that does not come without risks, write Jack Pannell and Ed Arnold. The experience of recent Prime Ministers suggests foreign policy requires the direct attention and energy of the Prime Minister.
AI is transforming the nuclear risk landscape faster than governance can adapt. ELN Policy Fellow Nikita Gryazin argues that the recently signed Rome Declaration should mark the beginning, not the end, of efforts to strengthen nuclear risk reduction. Doing so would help preserve meaningful human control, extend decision time, and update crisis management for the AI era.
Despite the success of the Ankara summit, the US is gradually decoupling itself from Europe in ways that will have profound consequences for European security and strategic stability. As ELN Senior Associate Fellow Nicholas Williams writes, NATO will not collapse in a single dramatic moment; it is slowly changing into something less able to perform its central task.
Thirty years ago today, the International Court of Justice drew a direct line between nuclear threats and the potential use of nuclear weapons. Now, as nuclear rhetoric returns to the centre of international politics, ELN Policy Fellow Jana Baldus argues the Court’s landmark advisory opinion remains an essential legal guide, and a call to action.
European security architecture is at a crossroads as NATO and the EU search for new roles amid growing uncertainty over the future of transatlantic security. With debate over a more European NATO and a European nuclear umbrella gathering pace, Tarja Cronberg argues that the Ankara summit will test whether allies can move beyond technical debates about defence spending and burden-sharing to articulate a collective vision for Europe’s future security order.
Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, calls for higher defence spending are dominating the agenda. But military investment alone cannot guarantee Europe’s security. Sabine Mengelberg argues that NATO’s long-term strength depends equally on political cohesion and shared values, foundations that sustain deterrence and the alliance’s ability to confront security challenges.