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Commentary

Nuclear posture and cyber threats: Why deterrence by punishment is not credible – and what to do about it

The United Kingdom’s latest nuclear doctrine suggests that severe cyber-attacks on their national or critical infrastructure could provoke a nuclear response. Despite this, cyber-attacks against the UK have surged over the past decade. Eva-Nour Repussard, YGLN member and Policy Fellow at BASIC, writes that instead of deterrence by punishment, the UK should seek to increase its resilience to cyber-attacks and focus on a strategy of deterrence by denial regarding cyber threats.

19 September 2024 | Eva-Nour Repussard
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionCyberDefenceEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareMilitary DoctrineNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSecurityUnited KingdomWMDsYGLN
Commentary

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Fake brains and killer robots

Listen to the fifth episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! In this episode, we explore artificial intelligence and its relationship with existential risk. Featuring an introduction to the topic, why we should be especially wary when integrating AI with nuclear weapons systems, the role of AI in arms control, how best to regulate AI on the global level and what international institutions are best placed to do so, as well as historical perspectives on technological change and its impact on our cultural understandings of existential risk.

2 August 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Alice Saltini, Konrad Seifert, Nicolò Miotto and Ganna Pogrebna
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlConventional Arms ControlCTBTDiplomacyEmerging technologiesGovernanceInternational LawNEVERPodcastsWMDsNEVER
Report

Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in turbulent times: Commentary collection

This commentary collection compiles 15 articles by 18 ELN network members and external collaborators as part of the ELN’s Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project. The collection was originally published for the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee.

31 July 2024 | Oliver Meier, Michael Biontino, Sanaa Alvira, Shizuka Kuramitsu, Olamide Samuel, Dr Irmgard Niemeyer, Maren Vieluf, Ananya Agustin Malhotra, Ward Wilson, Paul Ingram, Adam Thomson, Julia Berghofer, Alexander Kmentt, Pavel Podvig, Maximilian Hoell, Tarja Cronberg, Rishi Paul and Daniel Ajudeonu
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEmerging technologiesMilitary DoctrineNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussia-West RelationsSecurityWMDs
Commentary

Why Iran’s missile strikes pose a real problem for Pakistan

Recent conventional skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan highlight the fact that having nuclear weapons does not guarantee that the ‘have nots’ will refrain from pursuing military action against a nuclear-armed state and all the associated escalatory risks that entails. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Dr Rishi Paul writes that in light of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the fact that Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT, it is incumbent upon Islamabad to build the appropriate bilateral mechanisms to prevent any potential future escalations that could come about should Iran join the nuclear ‘club’.

25 July 2024 | Rishi Paul
IranNPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceIranNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPakistanRisk ReductionSecurityWMDs
Commentary

Never let a good crisis go to waste! The impact of great power conflict on the nuclear non-proliferation regime and what to do about it

In advance of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) 2026 Review Conference, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier argues that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has thrown the nuclear non-proliferation regime into crisis. Despite this, opportunities remain to revitalise multilateral frameworks. If N5 states are willing to compartmentalise nuclear arms control, and if the existing international organisations that govern arms nuclear control are better leveraged to build on past achievements, progress on mitigating nuclear risks can still be made.

18 July 2024 | Oliver Meier
NPTEuropean DefenceNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDiplomacyInternational LawMissilesNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited StatesWMDs
Policy brief

The challenge of Russian dual-capable missiles

In a new policy brief, ELN Senior Associate Fellows Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams examine the dual-capable nature of Russia’s medium and short-range missiles, and their implications for NATO’s strategy. Acknowledging the relationship between the nuclear and conventional dimensions, and in the context of Putin’s menacing references to Russia’s nuclear weapons, it looks at the impact on NATO strategy at both levels.

17 July 2024 | Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams
Russia-West relationsArms ControlConventional Arms ControlDefenceDeterrenceEastern EuropeEuropeINFMilitary DoctrineMissilesNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineWMDsSenior Associate Fellow