On 12 February 2025, the post-Cold War era ended, says Ilana Bet-El, as President Trump and President Putin agreed to negotiate without Ukraine or the EU. Subsequent US actions, including cutting defence aid and demanding Ukraine relinquish resources, have left Europe reeling. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El explores the fallout with Ukrainian civil society leaders Olena Tregub and Inna Pidluska.
The fall of the Assad government was a serious blow to Moscow’s image in the MENA region and on the international stage. It was a reality check for those who believed the Kremlin’s support could be the key to political survival. However, Nikolay Kozhanov argues that Assad’s fall is unlikely to be a turning point in Russia’s presence in the broader Middle East. He notes that Russia has worked to diversify its relationships across the region since the mid-2010s, especially looking to strengthen ties in the Gulf.
The Western Balkans, shaped by conflict and shifting alliances, remain geopolitically significant in a fast-changing world. A survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) highlights the fragmented nature of public opinion across the region. While some states lean West, others align more with Russia and China. ELN Visiting Fellow, Dr Leon Hartwell, writes that anti-Western propaganda is deepening these divisions, further complicating EU and NATO integration. He emphasises the need for a more strategic and coordinated Western approach in response.
Using nuclear deterrence to prevent cyber attacks presents not only ethical and strategic challenges but also significant legal concerns. International law imposes strict limits on the use of force, making a nuclear response to cyber attacks highly questionable. Attribution remains difficult, escalation risks are high, and proportionality concerns persist. YGLN member Verena Jackson writes that a more effective approach would focus on strengthening international norms, improving attribution mechanisms, and—above all—prioritising cyber resilience over expanding nuclear deterrence.
The world shifted on 20 January 2025 with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His bold actions—exiting the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organisation—signal an ambition to not only dismantle Biden’s legacy but elements of the post-war multilateral order. However, much of President Trump’s focus so far has centred on domestic issues, raising questions about the gap we may see between rhetoric and reality in US foreign policy under Trump 2.0. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El explores this with Dr Kathleen McInnis.
Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as New START enters its penultimate year in force, Nicholas Lokker writes that Russia is seeking to extricate itself from previously established arms control agreements it perceives as elements of the broader Western-dominated political and security order that it aims to overturn. He also argues that whilst Russia is unwilling to return to the negotiating table now, economics and external pressure from allies could herald a resumption of talks in future.