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Commentary

The non-proliferation considerations of nuclear-powered submarines

The AUKUS partnership has sparked heated debate about the use of nuclear-powered submarines by non-nuclear weapon states. Alexander Hoppenbrouwers writes that the main risks of diversion of nuclear material lie outside of its use to fuel nuclear-powered submarines, and that the International Atomic Energy Agency should argue for strict verification measures on the basis of earlier negotiations on this topic.

29 October 2024 | Alexander Hoppenbrouwers
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectAsia-Pacific RegionEmerging technologiesNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurityUnited KingdomUnited StatesWMDs
Podcast

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Nukes and new tech

In this special bonus episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer!, we take a deep dive into the ELN’s Nuclear and New Technologies project, which aims to identify the impacts of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) on nuclear decision-making and present practical steps to mitigate the potentially disruptive effects. Featuring discussions on why it’s best to explore the aggregate impact of EDTs as well as examining them individually, an introduction to the ELN’s Guardrails and Self-Assessment (GSA) Framework for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs), and the history of nuclear fail-safe reviews.

24 October 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Belén Bianco, Rishi Paul, Héloïse Fayet, Kim Westerich-Fellner and Julia Berghofer
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPodcastsRisk ReductionRussiaUnited StatesWMDsNEVERYGLN
Report

Workshop report: The OSCE and its role in strengthening European security architecture

In July 2024, the ELN convened a group of international experts to explore the historic, current, and future role of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and its toolbox in maintaining and strengthening European security architecture. This workshop report details the participants’ discussions on the OSCE’s history, its operations in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, the role of the OSCE in conflict management and post-conflict normalisation, organisational successes and failures, and its unique status as a platform for dialogue between the West and Russia.

15 August 2024 | Maria Branea
OSCERussia-West relationsArms ControlDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyEastern EuropeEmerging technologiesEUEuropeForeign policyInternational LawNATOOSCERisk ReductionRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited Nations
Commentary

Why Iran’s missile strikes pose a real problem for Pakistan

Recent conventional skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan highlight the fact that having nuclear weapons does not guarantee that the ‘have nots’ will refrain from pursuing military action against a nuclear-armed state and all the associated escalatory risks that entails. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Dr Rishi Paul writes that in light of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the fact that Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT, it is incumbent upon Islamabad to build the appropriate bilateral mechanisms to prevent any potential future escalations that could come about should Iran join the nuclear ‘club’.

25 July 2024 | Rishi Paul
IranNPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceIranNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPakistanRisk ReductionSecurityWMDs
Report

Technological complexity and risk reduction: A Guardrails and Self-Assessment Framework for EDTs in NC3 and nuclear weapons decision-making

Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are changing our lives – including in the worlds of defence and security. The ELN has been working since 2020 to understand how future nuclear crises may be affected by the intersection of multiple rapidly evolving new technologies. Building on years of work, this report presents a new Framework to help guide the safe use of EDTs in nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) systems, aiming to reduce risks and manage escalation.

19 July 2024 | Belén Bianco and Rishi Paul
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionEmerging technologiesNPTNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurity
Commentary

Never let a good crisis go to waste! The impact of great power conflict on the nuclear non-proliferation regime and what to do about it

In advance of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) 2026 Review Conference, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier argues that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has thrown the nuclear non-proliferation regime into crisis. Despite this, opportunities remain to revitalise multilateral frameworks. If N5 states are willing to compartmentalise nuclear arms control, and if the existing international organisations that govern arms nuclear control are better leveraged to build on past achievements, progress on mitigating nuclear risks can still be made.

18 July 2024 | Oliver Meier
NPTEuropean DefenceNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDiplomacyInternational LawMissilesNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited StatesWMDs