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Page 4 of 45
Commentary

The Russian New START initiative: How can Europeans respond to a poisonous offer?

Putin’s proposal to extend the nuclear weapons treaty for a year has been met with silence from most European leaders so far. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer writes that there are legitimate concerns over the sincerity of Russia’s proposal, but the West should not let go of an opportunity to leverage Russian interests. While Europeans have only a limited role to play, they must still try their best to influence the process.

15 October 2025 | Julia Berghofer
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationArms ControlEuropeNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaUnited StatesELNYGLN
Policy brief

Guarding the unthinkable: Why regular fail-safe reviews are essential for responsible nuclear stewardship

In times of eroding arms control measures, nuclear-weapons states should consider enhancing transparency around their nuclear safety, security and reliability mechanisms (‘fail-safe’) to strengthen the risk reduction agenda. This policy brief, by ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer, shows how France and the UK can advance fail-safe individually and bilaterally, as well as in the P3 and P5 contexts. Non-nuclear-weapon states parties to the NPT and members of NATO could also support this.

2 October 2025 | Julia Berghofer
FailsafeEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionFranceNPTNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionUnited KingdomELN
Commentary

A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline

By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. He proposes a roadmap for phased cooperation with the IAEA, anchored in a parallel diplomatic track with Europe and the US. The window for such an approach may close within weeks; quick action on both sides is essential.

26 August 2025 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationIranMiddle EastNPTNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSanctionsIran
Commentary

How opposing views on nuclear deterrence fracture the non-proliferation regime

Competing perceptions of nuclear deterrence are no longer peripheral disagreements within the NPT and are now driving deep divisions within the regime, threatening its very stability. ELN Policy Fellow Jana Baldus urges states to bridge this divide by recognising differing security perspectives and addressing concerns on all sides. Nuclear-armed states must clarify the rationale behind deterrence and confront double standards, while non-nuclear states should engage with the wider security consequences of rejecting deterrence and consider Russia’s and China’s strategies as well as those of the West.

20 August 2025 | Jana Baldus
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDeterrenceInternational LawNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk Reduction
Report

Global nuclear fail-safe: Meeting summaries and related documents

Fail-safe reviews aim to strengthen safeguards to prevent the unauthorised, inadvertent, or mistaken use of a nuclear weapon. In collaboration with NTI, EASLG, and APLN, the ELN has been working to highlight the benefits of independent, internal “fail-safe” reviews in nuclear-armed states. These summaries are from ELN and APLN nuclear fail-safe workshops with non-governmental partners in China, India, Pakistan, France, and the UK.

13 August 2025
FailsafeEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsAPLNELN
Commentary

Play to prevent: How wargames can map AI-nuclear dangers

The integration of AI into nuclear command and control seems all but inevitable. While there are benefits, there are also considerable risks. Experimental wargaming—realistic simulations with controlled variables—offers a powerful tool for investigating how AI could affect nuclear decision-making. Peter Rautenbach suggests three paths forward for how policymakers can use wargaming to generate quality data around AI and nuclear risks.

1 August 2025 | Peter Rautenbach
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk Reduction