The election of Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president in July was met with little enthusiasm in Israel. Meir Javedanfar writes that, in a post-7 October world, the Iranian president’s policy on Israel could impact his desire for improved relations with the West and, in turn, undermine his domestic priorities and a potential nuclear deal.
The United Kingdom’s latest nuclear doctrine suggests that severe cyber-attacks on their national or critical infrastructure could provoke a nuclear response. Despite this, cyber-attacks against the UK have surged over the past decade. Eva-Nour Repussard, YGLN member and Policy Fellow at BASIC, writes that instead of deterrence by punishment, the UK should seek to increase its resilience to cyber-attacks and focus on a strategy of deterrence by denial regarding cyber threats.
This commentary collection compiles 15 articles by 18 ELN network members and external collaborators as part of the ELN’s Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project. The collection was originally published for the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee.
Recent conventional skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan highlight the fact that having nuclear weapons does not guarantee that the ‘have nots’ will refrain from pursuing military action against a nuclear-armed state and all the associated escalatory risks that entails. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Dr Rishi Paul writes that in light of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the fact that Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT, it is incumbent upon Islamabad to build the appropriate bilateral mechanisms to prevent any potential future escalations that could come about should Iran join the nuclear ‘club’.
The US, Russia, and the UK have explicitly stated their intention to deter non-nuclear strategic threats from new technologies with nuclear weapons. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer writes that this could have destabilising effects, opening the door to new vulnerabilities and escalation risks. The N5 should discuss these policies as part of their longstanding dialogue on nuclear doctrines, and a public debate is required to explore potential alternative approaches.
Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are changing our lives – including in the worlds of defence and security. The ELN has been working since 2020 to understand how future nuclear crises may be affected by the intersection of multiple rapidly evolving new technologies. Building on years of work, this report presents a new Framework to help guide the safe use of EDTs in nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) systems, aiming to reduce risks and manage escalation.