Continuing our commentary series exploring European perspectives ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference, Łukasz Kulesa sets out Poland’s approach, balancing firm support for the Treaty with heightened security concerns, reaffirming non-proliferation commitments while prioritizing deterrence credibility, NATO cohesion, and pragmatic outcomes in a deeply polarised and uncertain global environment.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent speech at the Île-Longue submarine base introduced a long-awaited framework for reconfiguring European deterrence amid an increasingly dangerous and uncertain security landscape. Julia Berghofer and Astrid Chevreuil examine how France’s “forward deterrence” doctrine reshapes Franco-German cooperation, NATO dynamics, and Europe’s nuclear future while addressing emerging disarmament tensions.
ELN Senior Associate Fellow, Sir Adam Thomson, explores how Europe and Russia might navigate security after the war in Ukraine. Before debating end-states or shared rules, both sides should first agree on “process principles” – practical, step-by-step guidelines to manage confrontation, reduce escalation risks, and gradually foster a more stable, long-term coexistence.
Trump’s decision at Davos to temper earlier calls for US “ownership” of Greenland has lowered the immediate diplomatic temperature. Yet Greenland continues to occupy a central place in US defence planning and geoeconomic strategy, and the broader Arctic remains shaped by renewed Russian military activity and expanding Chinese economic interests. The underlying strategic drivers, therefore, persist, even if the rhetoric has softened. YGLN members write that this will have consequences for Europe and beyond, requiring increased cooperation and strengthening alliance cohesion.
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As the Greenland episode winds down following President Trump’s announcement of a “framework for a deal,” former U.S. diplomat Paul Fritch argues the saga was never about territorial acquisition, but a stress test of alliance cohesion in a world where Washington no longer treats cooperation and restraint as strategic virtues. The episode has exposed the limits of Europe’s cautious response to an America guided by hard power and transactional logic; he argues European leaders need to better understand what Trump views as weakness, and change their approach accordingly.