Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 was a shock to the Middle East, with the Gulf states aligning with the US, and Iran cultivating a “Shia Crescent” in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Dina Esfandiary joins ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El to guide us through the historical and geographic complexities of Iranian-American hostilities.
Following the recent US–Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent regional escalation, Europe’s response has been mixed. As the conflict widens, we ask members of the ELN Network how they assess Europe’s approach so far and what role European governments should be playing.
Iran is at a boiling point. In January, mass protests broke out across the country, and many thousands of people were wounded and killed. Meanwhile, the US has moved an aircraft carrier and a number of destroyers close to Iran in a military threat which remains unclear in its aims. To untangle these and many other threads, ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El welcomes back Iran specialist Roxane Farmanfarmaian, her co-Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, for a deep and fascinating examination of Iran at a crossroads.
While Israel and the US achieved meaningful operational successes against Iran’s nuclear programme in June 2025, the problem is far from resolved. Despite substantial damage to Iran’s infrastructure, Tehran can still—at least theoretically—move toward a nuclear weapon. As US and Iranian negotiators are due to meet this Friday in Oman for direct talks, Danny Citrinowicz from INSS writes that while military action can buy time, it cannot substitute for a broader strategy. Any sustainable approach to the Iranian nuclear challenge will require a combination of deterrence, diplomacy, intelligence, and clear political objectives regarding the desired end.
Any sign that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear and missile programme would likely push Israeli decision makers to order the next major attack against targets in Iran. But this would require the consent of the Trump administration, writes Meir Javedanfar. The Israeli government considers its ability to get Trump to join the war in June a considerable accomplishment and will unlikely want to sacrifice this achievement by angering Trump, especially as the next US-Israel military-assistance MOU is up for renegotiation.
By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. He proposes a roadmap for phased cooperation with the IAEA, anchored in a parallel diplomatic track with Europe and the US. The window for such an approach may close within weeks; quick action on both sides is essential.