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Commentary

Nuclear posture and cyber threats: Why deterrence by punishment is not credible – and what to do about it

The United Kingdom’s latest nuclear doctrine suggests that severe cyber-attacks on their national or critical infrastructure could provoke a nuclear response. Despite this, cyber-attacks against the UK have surged over the past decade. Eva-Nour Repussard, YGLN member and Policy Fellow at BASIC, writes that instead of deterrence by punishment, the UK should seek to increase its resilience to cyber-attacks and focus on a strategy of deterrence by denial regarding cyber threats.

19 September 2024 | Eva-Nour Repussard
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionCyberDefenceEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareMilitary DoctrineNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSecurityUnited KingdomWMDsYGLN
Commentary

What does global military AI governance need?

In the absence of globally acknowledged governance frameworks for AI in the military domain, two new initiatives came into existence in 2023 – the Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (REAIM) and the US-initiated Political Declaration. Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco analyse both, writing that REAIM provides a much-needed space for a democratic, depoliticised, and decentralised approach to global military AI governance.

2 February 2024 | Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco
Global SecurityArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareRisk ReductionUnited States
Report

Countering Russia’s hybrid threats in the Arctic

This report explores how hybrid threats manifest in the Arctic, areas that are susceptible to influence, potential targets, actors who wish to shape public opinions, as well as the objectives being pursued. Kertysova and Gricius examine the threat and vulnerability landscape in the Arctic and assesses four key trends that have been observed.

8 December 2023 | Katarina Kertysova and Gabriella Gricius
Euro-Atlantic SecurityArcticHybrid warfareRussiaRussia-West Relations
Commentary

The challenges of AI command and control

What do emerging and disruptive technologies like AI mean for the role of humans in war? How might AI-augmented human-machine interaction affect the role of human command in war? And what might an AI commander look like? James Johnson explores these topics and assesses whether or not we are moving towards a situation where AI-enabled autonomous weapons start making strategic decisions, as opposed to humans, during conflict.

12 April 2023 | James Johnson
Global SecurityAsia-Pacific RegionChinaCyberDefenceEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionUnited StatesELN