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Commentary

Deterrence without destruction: Rethinking responses to biological threats

Scientific advances have renewed a discussion around the possibility of potentially devastating biological attacks. Eva Siegmann writes that nuclear deterrence is inadequate to deter biological threats. Instead, the threat of biological weapons should be addressed via international efforts rooted in transparency and cooperation. Leveraging the mechanisms of the Biological Weapons Convention and implementing deterrence-by-denial strategies can effectively mitigate risks.

28 November 2024 | Eva Siegmann
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionBiosecurityConventional Arms ControlDefenceDeterrenceEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsNEVER
Podcast

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Nukes and new tech

In this special bonus episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer!, we take a deep dive into the ELN’s Nuclear and New Technologies project, which aims to identify the impacts of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) on nuclear decision-making and present practical steps to mitigate the potentially disruptive effects. Featuring discussions on why it’s best to explore the aggregate impact of EDTs as well as examining them individually, an introduction to the ELN’s Guardrails and Self-Assessment (GSA) Framework for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs), and the history of nuclear fail-safe reviews.

24 October 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Belén Bianco, Rishi Paul, Héloïse Fayet, Kim Westerich-Fellner and Julia Berghofer
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPodcastsRisk ReductionRussiaUnited StatesWMDsNEVERYGLN
Commentary

The use of EDTs in Ukraine could offer lessons for military strategies in South Asia

The war in Ukraine has become a theatre for military innovation due to the integration of new technologies on the battlefield which have transformed warfighting strategies. Rizwana Abbasi writes that Ukraine offers lessons on the employment of integrated technologies to engage in cross-domain warfare that militaries in South Asia could learn from. As new technologies risk increasing nuclear dangers in the South Asian context she offers potential ways forward for India and Pakistan to reduce escalations risks.

11 October 2024 | Rizwana Abbasi
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareIndiaNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPakistanUkraine
Commentary

Nuclear posture and cyber threats: Why deterrence by punishment is not credible – and what to do about it

The United Kingdom’s latest nuclear doctrine suggests that severe cyber-attacks on their national or critical infrastructure could provoke a nuclear response. Despite this, cyber-attacks against the UK have surged over the past decade. Eva-Nour Repussard, YGLN member and Policy Fellow at BASIC, writes that instead of deterrence by punishment, the UK should seek to increase its resilience to cyber-attacks and focus on a strategy of deterrence by denial regarding cyber threats.

19 September 2024 | Eva-Nour Repussard
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberDefenceEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareMilitary DoctrineNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSecurityUnited KingdomWMDsYGLN
Commentary

What does global military AI governance need?

In the absence of globally acknowledged governance frameworks for AI in the military domain, two new initiatives came into existence in 2023 – the Responsible Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain (REAIM) and the US-initiated Political Declaration. Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco analyse both, writing that REAIM provides a much-needed space for a democratic, depoliticised, and decentralised approach to global military AI governance.

2 February 2024 | Mahmoud Javadi and Michal Onderco
Global SecurityArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareRisk ReductionUnited States
Report

Countering Russia’s hybrid threats in the Arctic

This report explores how hybrid threats manifest in the Arctic, areas that are susceptible to influence, potential targets, actors who wish to shape public opinions, as well as the objectives being pursued. Kertysova and Gricius examine the threat and vulnerability landscape in the Arctic and assesses four key trends that have been observed.

8 December 2023 | Katarina Kertysova and Gabriella Gricius
Euro-Atlantic SecurityArcticHybrid warfareRussiaRussia-West Relations