The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.
A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.
This month, Chancellor Shultz wrote, “Germans are intent on becoming the guarantor of European security that our allies expect us to be, a bridge builder within the European Union and an advocate for multilateral solutions to global problems”. But to do so requires a “new strategic culture” in Germany’s security strategy – What shifts should we expect in the new Security Strategy and where do the main challenges lie?
Dr Ian Anthony examines confidence and security building measures (CSBMs) in Central and Eastern Europe and notes steps made by countries such as Belarus, Poland, and Ukraine to create and enhance bilateral discussion formats. This policy brief analyses these measures and examines their applicability to the current conflict in Ukraine and the European security order that will follow the war.
In the latest episode of the East-West Coffee Shop, Gent Salihu provides a perspective from Kosovo on how the results of the 2021 parliamentary elections in Kosovo will change U.S.-Kosovo relations with the new Biden administration.
As pro-democracy movements proliferate throughout the post-Soviet space, Europe and the US have had noticeably muted reactions. But should Joe Biden become America’s next president this week, he will likely take a more actively pro-democracy position in the region. The EU should start planning for this now.