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Commentary

Why Iran’s missile strikes pose a real problem for Pakistan

Recent conventional skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan highlight the fact that having nuclear weapons does not guarantee that the ‘have nots’ will refrain from pursuing military action against a nuclear-armed state and all the associated escalatory risks that entails. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Dr Rishi Paul writes that in light of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the fact that Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT, it is incumbent upon Islamabad to build the appropriate bilateral mechanisms to prevent any potential future escalations that could come about should Iran join the nuclear ‘club’.

25 July 2024 | Rishi Paul
IranNPTMultilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceIranNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPakistanRisk ReductionSecurityWMDs
Policy brief

The challenge of Russian dual-capable missiles

In a new policy brief, ELN Senior Associate Fellows Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams examine the dual-capable nature of Russia’s medium and short-range missiles, and their implications for NATO’s strategy. Acknowledging the relationship between the nuclear and conventional dimensions, and in the context of Putin’s menacing references to Russia’s nuclear weapons, it looks at the impact on NATO strategy at both levels.

17 July 2024 | Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams
Russia-West relationsArms ControlConventional Arms ControlDefenceDeterrenceEastern EuropeEuropeINFMilitary DoctrineMissilesNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineWMDsSenior Associate Fellow
Policy brief

NATO’s revival of collective defence and the challenge of national commitments

As leaders gather in Washington for a three day summit to mark NATO’s 75th anniversary, ELN Senior Associate Fellows Nicholas Williams and Simon Lunn analyse the re-emergence of collective defence as a priority within the alliance, and what it means for national governments. The paper argues that NATO’s regional plans should be the subject of parliamentary scrutiny by individual national parliaments to ensure that national commitments to NATO are consistent with the resources and political aims of their respective countries.

9 July 2024 | Nicholas Williams and Simon Lunn
Baltic SeaBlack SeaCentral EuropeDefenceDemocracyDeterrenceEastern EuropeEconomyEUEuropeForeign policyMilitary DoctrineNATONuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineSenior Associate Fellow
Commentary

Time to engage seriously with the TPNW’s security concerns

Alexander Kmentt, Director for Disarmament, Arms Control, and Nonproliferation at the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and ELN Senior Network member, writes that opponents of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in nuclear-armed states should stop dismissing the treaty outright. Instead, they should begin addressing the legitimate security concerns surrounding deterrence that are raised by its supporters.

4 June 2024 | Alexander Kmentt
NPTGlobal SecurityArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyInternational LawMilitary DoctrineNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurityWMDsELN
Commentary

Out of the shadow war? Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel

Following Iran’s direct attack on Israel on 13th April, Hemidreaza Azizi examines both the official and unofficial discourse in Iran in recent days. He writes that most political experts and analysts in Iran seem to agree that Iran’s goal has been to restore deterrence and not to enter into war. However, concerns about the outbreak of an unintended war and its destructive consequences appear to be more pronounced among experts than among official figures.

19 April 2024 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranGlobal SecurityDeterrenceIranMiddle EastNuclear WeaponsSecurityIran