Neither Russian peacekeepers nor EU mediation have prevented Azerbaijan from violently retaking Nagorno-Karabakh. The ELN’s Policy & Impact Director Jane Kinninmont analyses the geopolitical realignments underlying the offensive which has caused tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians to flee, and suggests means to avoid further conflict in the South Caucasus.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, governments in the former Soviet Union were immediately forced to deal with difficult geopolitical realities. In this report for the ELN, YGLN member Daniel Shapiro uses quantitative and qualitative analysis to show there is increased heterogeneity in geopolitical positioning among post-Soviet states and offers key lessons from this for Western policymakers.
This weekend’s meeting between the EU, Azerbaijan and Armenia is timely and important, as there are real risks that the humanitarian emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a prelude to wider escalation in the southern Caucasus, writes Jane Kinninmont. As the Minsk Group of governments tasked with addressing the conflict appears to be barely active, the EU role will be critical.
The South Caucasus is a strategically significant part of the world — but the West’s presence in the region seems to be gradually eroding. Daniel Shapiro provides suggestions regarding areas in which Western countries can re-engage.
As Armenia goes to the polls this weekend, Andreas Persbo writes that the election will have implications for the political landscape of the region. But it also represents an opportunity for multilateral cooperation that Brussels, Moscow and Washington should grasp.
The next phase of the EU’s Eastern Partnership will be launched this week. The approach set out so far fails to deliver – at this week’s summit, leaders should address the gaps.