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Commentary

In Russia’s perceived war with the West, arms control is collateral damage

Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as New START enters its penultimate year in force, Nicholas Lokker of the Centre for a New American Security writes that Russia is seeking to extricate itself from previously established arms control agreements it perceives as elements of the broader Western-dominated political and security order that it aims to overturn. He also argues that whilst Russia is unwilling to return to the negotiating table now, economics and external pressure from allies could herald a resumption of talks in future.

13 January 2025 | Nicholas Lokker
NPTRussia-WestRussia-West relationsArms ControlConventional Arms ControlCSBMsDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEuropeForeign policyMissilesNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineWMDs
Commentary

The Women Leaders podcast: As missiles fly

One year since Hamas’ invasion of southern Israel, Israel’s consequent offensive in Gaza, and Hezbollah’s initial rocket campaign in northern Israel, it appears as if the violence in the Middle East is only getting worse. In this unique episode, Women Leaders is building a bridge: Fania Oz-Salzberger, Professor of History at Haifa University and renowned public intellectual, and Roula from Beirut — for security reasons, we cannot release her real name — join ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El for an in-depth discussion of Israeli and Lebanese politics, the involvement of women in decision-making, and the hope of one day seeing a new Middle East.

4 October 2024 | Ilana Bet-El and Florence Ferrando
IranIranDefenceDiplomacyForeign policyGenderIranMiddle EastMissilesPodcastsUnited NationsSenior Associate FellowYGLN
Commentary

Never let a good crisis go to waste! The impact of great power conflict on the nuclear non-proliferation regime and what to do about it

In advance of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) 2026 Review Conference, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier argues that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has thrown the nuclear non-proliferation regime into crisis. Despite this, opportunities remain to revitalise multilateral frameworks. If N5 states are willing to compartmentalise nuclear arms control, and if the existing international organisations that govern arms nuclear control are better leveraged to build on past achievements, progress on mitigating nuclear risks can still be made.

18 July 2024 | Oliver Meier
NPTEuropean DefenceNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDiplomacyInternational LawMissilesNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited StatesWMDs
Policy brief

The challenge of Russian dual-capable missiles

In a new policy brief, ELN Senior Associate Fellows Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams examine the dual-capable nature of Russia’s medium and short-range missiles, and their implications for NATO’s strategy. Acknowledging the relationship between the nuclear and conventional dimensions, and in the context of Putin’s menacing references to Russia’s nuclear weapons, it looks at the impact on NATO strategy at both levels.

17 July 2024 | Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams
Russia-West relationsArms ControlConventional Arms ControlDefenceDeterrenceEastern EuropeEuropeINFMilitary DoctrineMissilesNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineWMDsSenior Associate Fellow
Commentary

The NPT needs a common understanding of “nuclear threats”: Questions and tasks for the 11th NPT Review Cycle

YGLN members Maren Vieluf and Ananya Agustin Malhotra argue that NPT states need to start talking about whether or not “defensive” and “offensive” nuclear threats can be distinguished. If NPT states can find agreement on this matter, it could bridge the gap between states condemning any and all nuclear threats under any circumstances and those states that stand firmly behind “defensive” nuclear threats and allow for further progress to be made in the 11th NPT Review Cycle.

15 February 2024 | Maren Vieluf and Ananya Agustin Malhotra
NPTGlobal SecurityMultilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferationArms ControlCTBTMissilesNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsYGLN
Commentary

Be careful what you wish for: Russia wants to share nuclear weapons with Belarus

The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.

6 April 2023 | Katia Glod and Oliver Meier
Euro-Atlantic SecurityBelarusDefenceDeterrenceEastern EuropeMissilesNATONPTProjectNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineWMDsELN