Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 was a shock to the Middle East, with the Gulf states aligning with the US, and Iran cultivating a “Shia Crescent” in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Dina Esfandiary joins ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El to guide us through the historical and geographic complexities of Iranian-American hostilities.
Artificial intelligence, much like nuclear technologies, has the capacity to transform our world for the better, offering breakthroughs in several fields whilst simultaneously posing catastrophic risks. Nuclear policy experts, skilled in managing existential threats, are well-suited to guide AI governance. ELN Network and Communications Manager Andrew Jones argues that urgent, coordinated international action and further collaboration between experts in the nuclear and AI fields is needed before AI outpaces our ability to control it.
This policy brief explores the integration of digital twin technologies into nuclear decision-making processes, assessing their potential to reduce risks stemming from emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs). It argues for international dialogue, transparency, and responsible innovation to prevent misuse, enhance NC3 resilience, and strengthen strategic stability through informed, scenario-based crisis simulations.
A new report published from the European Leadership Network’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) project calls for a systemic international approach to be taken to address man-made existential risk. The risks from nuclear weapons, climate change, biological threats, and AI are interconnected and cross-cutting lessons should be drawn.
Using nuclear deterrence to prevent cyber attacks presents not only ethical and strategic challenges but also significant legal concerns. International law imposes strict limits on the use of force, making a nuclear response to cyber attacks highly questionable. Attribution remains difficult, escalation risks are high, and proportionality concerns persist. YGLN member Verena Jackson writes that a more effective approach would focus on strengthening international norms, improving attribution mechanisms, and—above all—prioritising cyber resilience over expanding nuclear deterrence.
Scientific advances have renewed a discussion around the possibility of potentially devastating biological attacks. Eva Siegmann writes that nuclear deterrence is inadequate to deter biological threats. Instead, the threat of biological weapons should be addressed via international efforts rooted in transparency and cooperation. Leveraging the mechanisms of the Biological Weapons Convention and implementing deterrence-by-denial strategies can effectively mitigate risks.