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Commentary

Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures

Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Alexander Graef writes that this is where confidence-and security-building measures (CSBMs) may help. They can reinforce deterrence by demonstrating capabilities to observers and clarify the difference between sabre-rattling and genuine threats, but only if all sides share an interest in stability.

9 September 2025 | Alexander Graef
Russia-West relationsBelarusCSBMsRussiaRussia-West RelationsELN
Commentary

Summit survival guide: How NATO’s June 2025 Summit can preserve the Alliance’s core values and interests

NATO’s upcoming Summit in The Hague comes at a key point in the Alliance’s history; Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, American impatience with European underspending on defence, and European fears of American withdrawal from collective defence all represent major threats. Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, and ELN Senior Associate Fellow former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, argue that NATO’s history demonstrates it is capable of combining strength and flexibility in times of crisis. They argue for a ‘back to basics’ approach to ease internal tensions, strengthen partnerships and move towards a state of ‘managed co-existence’ with Russia.

19 May 2025 | Stephen Evans and Adam Thomson
Russia-WestRussia-West relationsBelarusDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEuropeForeign policyNATONuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited StatesSenior Associate Fellow
Report

Scenario building workshop report: “Europe after the war”

This report comes off the back of a two-day scenario-building workshop convened in October by the European Leadership Network and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Istanbul. A diverse group of experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe gathered to explore the implications of several different outcomes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe. Read the full report to view the scenarios, participants’ comments, and policy recommendations for European leaders.

14 February 2024
Russia-West relationsBalticsBelarusBlack SeaEastern EuropeEUEuropeNATONuclear WeaponsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineContact Group
Policy brief

Year two of the invasion: Where do former Soviet countries stand?

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, governments in the former Soviet Union were immediately forced to deal with difficult geopolitical realities. In this report for the ELN, YGLN member Daniel Shapiro uses quantitative and qualitative analysis to show there is increased heterogeneity in geopolitical positioning among post-Soviet states and offers key lessons from this for Western policymakers.

4 July 2023 | Daniel Shapiro
Euro-Atlantic SecurityArmeniaBaltic SeaBalticsBelarusBlack SeaCentral AsiaDiplomacyEastern EuropeEUEurasian Economic UnionGeorgiaRussiaUkraineYGLN
Commentary

Be careful what you wish for: Russia wants to share nuclear weapons with Belarus

The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would increase nuclear risks and undermine key nonproliferation norms, but it would not alter the strategic balance in Europe. For Russia, sharing nuclear weapons with Belarus might well backfire politically. NATO countries should therefore resist the impulse to up the nuclear ante.

6 April 2023 | Katia Glod and Oliver Meier
Euro-Atlantic SecurityBelarusDefenceDeterrenceEastern EuropeMissilesNATONPTProjectNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineWMDsELN
Commentary

The war in Ukraine one year on: will Belarus join the battlefield?

A new Russian offensive this year raises the threat of Belarus playing a more active role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Even though facts on the ground point to this being a less likely scenario, decision-makers should prepare for the unexpected. The situation could change at any moment, with the risk of the conflict widening.

28 February 2023 | Katia Glod
European DefenceBelarusDefenceEastern EuropeEuropeRussiaUkraineELN