This ELN and APLN report compares Australian, Japanese, South Korean, and UK risk perceptions towards Taiwan and North Korea. It finds that diverging perceptions of risk in the Asia-Pacific are potential obstacles to policy coordination and offers recommendations for how to address this.
Nobumasa Akiyama discusses Japanese perspectives of strategic risks in East Asia, including the North Korean threat and navigating Japan’s relationship with China amid great power rivalry.
Tanya Ogilvie-White writes that South Korea is becoming increasingly isolated from its Asia-Pacific security partners – Japan, Australia, the US, and the UK – in the way that it views the threat from North Korea. South Korea’s regional security partners’ increased focus on China and lessened attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme, risks isolating South Korea and undermining proliferation norms. Ogilvie-White argues that heightened collaborations are needed to avoid this.
North and South Korea are locked in a competitive cycle marked by efforts to balance each other’s increasing military capabilities. Jina Kim explores arms control and crisis stability on the Korean Peninsula and its impact on North Korea’s strategic calculations. The paper offers policy recommendations for South Korean policymakers to address these challenges.
This ELN and APLN policy brief explores the challenges facing Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the UK in their security strategies towards China and North Korea. The paper argues that these security partners must balance deterrence strategies with providing assurances to adversaries.
Australia’s deterrence-heavy defence strategy may heighten the risks of inadvertent escalation in the Asia-Pacific rather than mitigate them, writes Brendan Taylor. This joint ELN APLN policy brief makes a number of recommendations to Australian policymakers to avoid failling into a deterrence trap.