The recent violations of Allied airspace represent an unprecedented escalation of tensions between NATO and Russia. Matus Halas writes that NATO must try to protect its airspace against unauthorised activities, but the inconsistency of approach within NATO makes deterrence harder. While different incursions must be treated differently, there needs to be consistency both over time and across member states.
Any monitoring mission deployed to observe an end to the hostilities in Ukraine is likely to incorporate a range of remote-sensing technologies to support its verification activities. Drawing on insights from the Norwegian research institute NORSAR’s real-time monitoring of the 2022 Ukraine conflict, this policy brief by Ben D.E. Dando, Kjølv Egeland, and Sebastian Schutte, finds that scientific advances and a growing availability of relevant data have made ‘seismo-acoustic’ analysis a cost-effective means of complementing, backing up, and in some cases replacing other ceasefire monitoring technologies.
Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Alexander Graef writes that this is where confidence-and security-building measures (CSBMs) may help. They can reinforce deterrence by demonstrating capabilities to observers and clarify the difference between sabre-rattling and genuine threats, but only if all sides share an interest in stability.
Faced with a near-term threat to their security, NATO’s European allies can establish a framework for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of their defence acquisition system. ELN network member Tom McKane outlines what elements this should contain.
As the OSCE marks 50 years since the Helsinki Final Act, Paul Fritch argues that participating States and civil society should shift from debating its relevance to rediscovering its legacy. Despite recent crises, its rich experience in arms control, conflict resolution, and democratic governance offers valuable tools for addressing today’s security challenges, should states choose to act through it.
As the eyes of the world look to the US, Ukraine, and the Middle East, attention is distracted from rapidly changing events in the Caucasus. Traditionally Russia’s “backyard”, its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has lessened its influence in the region. Meanwhile, Armenia is in disarray following Azerbaijan’s military offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023, and in Georgia, the Russia-backed government is cracking down on opposition leaders. To understand these fascinating dynamics, ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El is joined by YGLN member Tinatin Japaridze, Eurasia analyst at the Eurasia Group.