In light of Putin’s recent offer of a voluntary, time-limited extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) obligations to the US, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier writes that US allies in Europe should seize this opportunity to help shape the outcome of deliberations about how to respond to Putin’s initiative.
Any sign that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear and missile programme would likely push Israeli decision makers to order the next major attack against targets in Iran. But this would require the consent of the Trump administration, writes Meir Javedanfar. The Israeli government considers its ability to get Trump to join the war in June a considerable accomplishment and will unlikely want to sacrifice this achievement by angering Trump, especially as the next US-Israel military-assistance MOU is up for renegotiation.
By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. He proposes a roadmap for phased cooperation with the IAEA, anchored in a parallel diplomatic track with Europe and the US. The window for such an approach may close within weeks; quick action on both sides is essential.
Competing perceptions of nuclear deterrence are no longer peripheral disagreements within the NPT and are now driving deep divisions within the regime, threatening its very stability. ELN Policy Fellow Jana Baldus urges states to bridge this divide by recognising differing security perspectives and addressing concerns on all sides. Nuclear-armed states must clarify the rationale behind deterrence and confront double standards, while non-nuclear states should engage with the wider security consequences of rejecting deterrence and consider Russia’s and China’s strategies as well as those of the West.
Many in Europe have felt frustrated by many African states’ equivocal posture on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, Daniel Ajudeonu of the YGLN writes that African neutrality on the Ukraine war reflects economic realities, notably Russia’s growing role in African nuclear energy development. He argues Europe’s influence will remain limited unless it offers competitive, transparent, and development-oriented nuclear partnerships. Strategic cooperation in financing, technology transfer, and human capital could foster African alignment with European security priorities.
80 years after Hiroshima, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier warns that while leaders solemnly mark the bombing’s anniversary, their growing complacency toward nuclear weapons and proliferation raises the risk of use. He urges renewed commitment to disarmament as the only way to prevent future nuclear catastrophe.