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Policy brief

Technological complexity and risk reduction: Using digital twins to navigate uncertainty in nuclear weapons decision-making and EDT landscapes

This policy brief explores the integration of digital twin technologies into nuclear decision-making processes, assessing their potential to reduce risks stemming from emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs). It argues for international dialogue, transparency, and responsible innovation to prevent misuse, enhance NC3 resilience, and strengthen strategic stability through informed, scenario-based crisis simulations.

23 April 2025 | Rishi Paul, Graham Stacey, Ganna Pogrebna, Immaculate-Motsi Omoijiade, Nathan Damaj and Jake McNaughton
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlCyberDefenceEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSecurityWMDs
Report

How to save the world: Influencing policy on the biggest risks to humanity

A new report published from the European Leadership Network’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) project calls for a systemic international approach to be taken to address man-made existential risk. The risks from nuclear weapons, climate change, biological threats, and AI are interconnected and cross-cutting lessons should be drawn.

4 March 2025 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Nicolò Miotto, Arthur Duforest, Ezgi Yazicioglu, Jieqiong Duan, Rebecca Donaldson, Valeriia Hesse, Jasper Götting and Emil Nafis Iftekhar
EDTsEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlBiosecurityClimate changeCyberDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyDisinformationEmerging technologiesEuropeGovernanceHybrid warfareNEVERNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsNEVER
Policy brief

Assessing the implications of integrating AI in nuclear decision-making systems

This policy brief analyses the integration of AI into nuclear command, control and communications systems (NC3), exploring potential benefits and significant risks. Former ELN policy fellow and Non-Resident Expert on AI at CNS Alice Saltini highlights the need for a better assessment of risks and the establishment of thresholds for integration to prevent miscalculations and nuclear escalation. It proposes that the EU leads international dialogue on AI risks in the nuclear domain in relevant international discussions.

11 February 2025 | Alice Saltini
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsYGLN
Commentary

Deterrence without destruction: Rethinking responses to biological threats

Scientific advances have renewed a discussion around the possibility of potentially devastating biological attacks. Eva Siegmann writes that nuclear deterrence is inadequate to deter biological threats. Instead, the threat of biological weapons should be addressed via international efforts rooted in transparency and cooperation. Leveraging the mechanisms of the Biological Weapons Convention and implementing deterrence-by-denial strategies can effectively mitigate risks.

28 November 2024 | Eva Siegmann
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionBiosecurityConventional Arms ControlDefenceDeterrenceEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsNEVER
Event

ELN workshop report: Technological complexity and risk reduction

On the 29th and 30th of October 2024, the ELN convened a two-day workshop as part of its project, “Simulating Technological Complexity & Advancing Risk Reduction”, to explore how experimental AI-driven prototypes might enhance decision-making and reduce risks associated with Emerging and Disruptive Technologies in the nuclear domain.

29 October 2024
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionCyberEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk Reduction
Podcast

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Nukes and new tech

In this special bonus episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer!, we take a deep dive into the ELN’s Nuclear and New Technologies project, which aims to identify the impacts of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) on nuclear decision-making and present practical steps to mitigate the potentially disruptive effects. Featuring discussions on why it’s best to explore the aggregate impact of EDTs as well as examining them individually, an introduction to the ELN’s Guardrails and Self-Assessment (GSA) Framework for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs), and the history of nuclear fail-safe reviews.

24 October 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Belén Bianco, Rishi Paul, Héloïse Fayet, Kim Westerich-Fellner and Julia Berghofer
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPodcastsRisk ReductionRussiaUnited StatesWMDsNEVERYGLN