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Commentary

Deterrence without destruction: Rethinking responses to biological threats

Scientific advances have renewed a discussion around the possibility of potentially devastating biological attacks. Eva Siegmann writes that nuclear deterrence is inadequate to deter biological threats. Instead, the threat of biological weapons should be addressed via international efforts rooted in transparency and cooperation. Leveraging the mechanisms of the Biological Weapons Convention and implementing deterrence-by-denial strategies can effectively mitigate risks.

28 November 2024 | Eva Siegmann
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionBiosecurityConventional Arms ControlDefenceDeterrenceEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDsNEVER
Event

ELN workshop report: Technological complexity and risk reduction

On the 29th and 30th of October 2024, the ELN convened a two-day workshop as part of its project, “Simulating Technological Complexity & Advancing Risk Reduction”, to explore how experimental AI-driven prototypes might enhance decision-making and reduce risks associated with Emerging and Disruptive Technologies in the nuclear domain.

29 October 2024
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk Reduction
Podcast

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Nukes and new tech

In this special bonus episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer!, we take a deep dive into the ELN’s Nuclear and New Technologies project, which aims to identify the impacts of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) on nuclear decision-making and present practical steps to mitigate the potentially disruptive effects. Featuring discussions on why it’s best to explore the aggregate impact of EDTs as well as examining them individually, an introduction to the ELN’s Guardrails and Self-Assessment (GSA) Framework for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs), and the history of nuclear fail-safe reviews.

24 October 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Belén Bianco, Rishi Paul, Héloïse Fayet, Kim Westerich-Fellner and Julia Berghofer
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionArms ControlChinaConventional Arms ControlCyberDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEmerging technologiesGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawNEVERNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPodcastsRisk ReductionRussiaUnited StatesWMDsNEVERYGLN
Commentary

The use of EDTs in Ukraine could offer lessons for military strategies in South Asia

The war in Ukraine has become a theatre for military innovation due to the integration of new technologies on the battlefield which have transformed warfighting strategies. Rizwana Abbasi writes that Ukraine offers lessons on the employment of integrated technologies to engage in cross-domain warfare that militaries in South Asia could learn from. As new technologies risk increasing nuclear dangers in the South Asian context she offers potential ways forward for India and Pakistan to reduce escalations risks.

11 October 2024 | Rizwana Abbasi
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberEmerging technologiesHybrid warfareIndiaNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsPakistanUkraine
Commentary

Nuclear vs cyber deterrence: why the UK should invest more in its cyber capabilities and less in nuclear deterrence

The threats the UK faces today are more nuanced and diverse than in the Cold War era, ranging from state-sponsored cyber-attacks to sophisticated disinformation campaigns. ELN Policy Fellow Nikita Gryazin argues that these challenges require a shift in focus from traditional nuclear deterrence to modern defensive and offensive cyber capabilities.

23 September 2024 | Nikita Gryazin
EDTsJRCTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionCyberDeterrenceNuclear WeaponsSecurityUnited KingdomELN
Commentary

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – How to save the world

Listen to the final episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! This episode takes a step back to assess what we’ve learned about existential and global catastrophic risks in previous episodes, and what comes next. Featuring a discussion of how ordinary people can get involved in existential risk mitigation, what ongoing efforts will prove most successful in creating a framework to deal on these topics, and how the example of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty demonstrates that global cooperation to deal with the biggest threats we all face is possible, even in a tense geopolitical climate.

20 September 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Florian Ulrich Jehn, Nadine Andersen and Francis J. Gavin
EDTsEmerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reductionBiosecurityClimate changeDemocracyEmerging technologiesGovernanceInternational LawNEVERNuclear WeaponsPodcastsUnited NationsWMDsNEVER