Russia’s upcoming Duma election will be the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In an unfavourable context, the Kremlin’s political managers have been highly active in sterilising the ballot. Anton Barbashin, Editorial Director of Riddle Russia, examines how these wartime elections are becoming a demonstration of support for the war and Putin’s continued rule.
Russia’s elections may be repressive and predictable, but that does not make them meaningless. While no one predicts that United Russia will be denied a majority in the upcoming Duma election, managing the political space has become more difficult than in the past. As Julian G. Waller writes, deviation from the Kremlin’s desired result could have wider consequences for elite politics.
Russia’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine depends on its economic base. YGLN member Sinikka Parviainen argues wartime mobilisation has enabled defence production growth despite sanctions, but deep structural weaknesses are accumulating, signalling long-term fragility. Euro-Atlantic policy should intensify targeted economic pressure while preparing for a weakened yet enduring Russian military and political threat.
The evolving confrontation between Europe and Russia is not a temporary crisis but a long-term condition that must be managed. In this report, ELN Senior Policy Fellow Alexander Graef sets out a strategy for governing a prolonged and adversarial relationship with Moscow beyond the war, focused on strengthening European political agency, credible deterrence, and governing escalation risks.
Trump’s decision at Davos to temper earlier calls for US “ownership” of Greenland has lowered the immediate diplomatic temperature. Yet Greenland continues to occupy a central place in US defence planning and geoeconomic strategy, and the broader Arctic remains shaped by renewed Russian military activity and expanding Chinese economic interests. The underlying strategic drivers, therefore, persist, even if the rhetoric has softened. YGLN members write that this will have consequences for Europe and beyond, requiring increased cooperation and strengthening alliance cohesion.
In a new study testing six leading AI models, YGLN member Ihor Samokhodskyi found that the language in which users ask AI chatbots questions about Russia’s war in Ukraine affects the likelihood that answers contain disinformation or propaganda. Samokhodskyi writes that this is a cognitive warfare problem that shapes how millions of users understand contested events. Europe needs to take three policy steps to address this.