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Commentary

Israel’s Iran options after the 12-day war

Any sign that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear and missile programme would likely push Israeli decision makers to order the next major attack against targets in Iran. But this would require the consent of the Trump administration, writes Meir Javedanfar. The Israeli government considers its ability to get Trump to join the war in June a considerable accomplishment and will unlikely want to sacrifice this achievement by angering Trump, especially as the next US-Israel military-assistance MOU is up for renegotiation.

27 August 2025 | Meir Javedanfar
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationIranIsraelMiddle EastNuclear WeaponsUnited StatesIran
Commentary

A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline

By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. He proposes a roadmap for phased cooperation with the IAEA, anchored in a parallel diplomatic track with Europe and the US. The window for such an approach may close within weeks; quick action on both sides is essential.

26 August 2025 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationIranMiddle EastNPTNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSanctionsIran
Commentary

The non-proliferation outlook after the twelve-day war: Moving beyond damage control

The possible fallout from the recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities requires sustainable approaches to nuclear non-proliferation that go beyond ad hoc solutions, writes Almuntaser Albalawi. Any new diplomatic solution should be embedded within a broader, long-term strategy that includes steps toward a regional arms control framework in the Middle East, addressing the underlying drivers of proliferation. The international community should continue supporting initiatives that sustain dialogue and strengthen regional partnerships.

23 July 2025 | Almuntaser Albalawi
IranIranIranIsraelJCPOAMiddle EastNPTNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsWMDsYGLN
Commentary

The militarisation of non-proliferation: Will the NPT survive?

The impact of the Israel-US military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities in June will not only be felt in the Middle East. ELN senior network member Tarja Cronberg writes that these strikes also endanger the future of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The 2026 NPT Review Conference should concentrate on preventing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and should focus on its commitment to a Middle East WMD-Free Zone before it’s too late.

11 July 2025 | Tarja Cronberg
IranNPTIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectIranIsraelJCPOANPTNPTProjectNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsWMDsELN
Commentary

Israel-Iran conflict: War amid talks

On Thursday night, Israel launched massive strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear programme and military leaders. This came two days before the US and Iran were supposed to resume direct talks on finding a diplomatic agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear programme. Jane Kinninmont writes that while the short-term repercussions are highly uncertain, there may be more certainty about the long-term ones: this is hugely undermining to nuclear diplomacy and non-proliferation in general.

13 June 2025 | Jane Kinninmont
IranIranIranIsraelJCPOANPTNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsIran
Commentary

A fragile opening: Iran, the US, and the high-stakes return to diplomacy

Talks between Tehran and Washington are set to take place on Saturday in Oman. Hamidreza Azizi writes that much of Iran’s political spectrum is cautiously optimistic about negotiations, reflecting a recognition of Iran’s military and economic constraints, and a desire to avoid war while securing relief from crippling sanctions. This pragmatic approach may signal a rare opportunity to pursue a deal that addresses concerns over Iran’s nuclear program while averting another regional conflict, but the potential for miscalculation remains high.

11 April 2025 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationIranJCPOAMiddle EastNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsUnited StatesIran