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Commentary

AI enables strategic stupidity. That should terrify Europe

AI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to strikes in Iran, reduced risks enable operations with minimal casualties. That ease lowers the bar for war, leaving allies exposed to miscalculation and dependence on a partner willing to act without planning the aftermath.

14 April 2026 | Michal Onderco
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlArtificial IntelligenceCyberEmerging technologiesEuropeIranUnited States
Report

Towards a better understanding of human bias in nuclear decision-making and its interaction with emerging and disruptive technologies

This report by Ganna Pogrebna and ELN Senior Policy Fellow Rishi Paul presents findings from an ELN workshop that examined the ‘human’ and ‘machine’ components of bias and their points of interaction. The report highlights how human judgment and AI systems can interact in ways that reinforce, rather than reduce, risk.

27 February 2026 | Ganna Pogrebna and Rishi Paul
2NTEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsELN
Video

From Risk to Reduction: Practical steps for safer nuclear systems

Nuclear weapons aren’t going anywhere, and the way we manage them can and must keep evolving. Today’s security environment is more complex than during the Cold War: more nuclear-armed states, faster decision-making technologies, and fewer treaties providing guardrails. The good news? Proven tools exist to reduce risk, from fail-safe mechanisms to dialogue between adversaries, and they don’t all require perfect trust or total agreement. This animation explains both the challenges and the credible paths forward.

17 February 2026
2NTFailsafeEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionDeterrenceEmerging technologiesEuropeNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsELNYGLN
Policy brief

Guarding the unthinkable: Why regular fail-safe reviews are essential for responsible nuclear stewardship

In times of eroding arms control measures, nuclear-weapons states should consider enhancing transparency around their nuclear safety, security and reliability mechanisms (‘fail-safe’) to strengthen the risk reduction agenda. This policy brief, by ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer, shows how France and the UK can advance fail-safe individually and bilaterally, as well as in the P3 and P5 contexts. Non-nuclear-weapon states parties to the NPT and members of NATO could also support this.

2 October 2025 | Julia Berghofer
FailsafeEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionFranceNPTNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionUnited KingdomELN
Report

Global nuclear fail-safe: Meeting summaries and related documents

Fail-safe reviews aim to strengthen safeguards to prevent the unauthorised, inadvertent, or mistaken use of a nuclear weapon. In collaboration with NTI, EASLG, and APLN, the ELN has been working to highlight the benefits of independent, internal “fail-safe” reviews in nuclear-armed states. These summaries are from ELN and APLN nuclear fail-safe workshops with non-governmental partners in China, India, Pakistan, France, and the UK.

13 August 2025
FailsafeEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsAPLNELN