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Commentary

Bluff and bluster: Why Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine

Last week, President Putin approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, formally lowering the threshold for Russia’s use of its nuclear weapons. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Rishi Paul writes that these changes have been prompted by Putin’s use of nuclear weapons as tools of coercion, aiming to manipulate shared nuclear risks for intimidation and political leverage and to induce Western caution. However, Putin’s nuclear threats have not fundamentally reshaped Western policies and may underscore the limitations of nuclear coercion as a tool for shaping adversaries’ behaviour.

25 November 2024 | Rishi Paul
Podcast

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Nukes and new tech

In this special bonus episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer!, we take a deep dive into the ELN’s Nuclear and New Technologies project, which aims to identify the impacts of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDT) on nuclear decision-making and present practical steps to mitigate the potentially disruptive effects. Featuring discussions on why it’s best to explore the aggregate impact of EDTs as well as examining them individually, an introduction to the ELN’s Guardrails and Self-Assessment (GSA) Framework for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs), and the history of nuclear fail-safe reviews.

Commentary

Why Iran’s missile strikes pose a real problem for Pakistan

Recent conventional skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan highlight the fact that having nuclear weapons does not guarantee that the ‘have nots’ will refrain from pursuing military action against a nuclear-armed state and all the associated escalatory risks that entails. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Dr Rishi Paul writes that in light of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the fact that Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT, it is incumbent upon Islamabad to build the appropriate bilateral mechanisms to prevent any potential future escalations that could come about should Iran join the nuclear ‘club’.

25 July 2024 | Rishi Paul
Report

Technological complexity and risk reduction: A Guardrails and Self-Assessment Framework for EDTs in NC3 and nuclear weapons decision-making

Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are changing our lives – including in the worlds of defence and security. The ELN has been working since 2020 to understand how future nuclear crises may be affected by the intersection of multiple rapidly evolving new technologies. Building on years of work, this report presents a new Framework to help guide the safe use of EDTs in nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) systems, aiming to reduce risks and manage escalation.

19 July 2024 | Belén Bianco and Rishi Paul
Report

Asia-Pacific flashpoints: Comparing Australian, Japanese, South Korean & UK perceptions

This ELN and APLN report compares Australian, Japanese, South Korean, and UK risk perceptions towards Taiwan and North Korea. It finds that diverging perceptions of risk in the Asia-Pacific are potential obstacles to policy coordination and offers recommendations for how to address this.