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Commentary

Managed co-existence: What NATO could say about Russia

At last year’s Vilnius Summit, NATO pledged to develop a strategic approach to Russia. But with President Trump engaging Moscow directly and ending the “no business as usual” stance, consensus by the June summit in The Hague is unlikely. ELN Senior Associate Fellow and former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, and Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, argue that in light of this, NATO should pursue a strategic shift—an internal deal towards a “managed co-existence” with Russia. This could align with Trump’s goals while preserving deterrence, sustaining European support for Ukraine, and keeping the U.S. committed to NATO.

21 May 2025 | Adam Thomson and Stephen Evans
Russia-WestRussia-West relationsSenior Associate Fellow
Commentary

Summit survival guide: How NATO’s June 2025 Summit can preserve the Alliance’s core values and interests

NATO’s upcoming Summit in The Hague comes at a key point in the Alliance’s history; Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, American impatience with European underspending on defence, and European fears of American withdrawal from collective defence all represent major threats. Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, and ELN Senior Associate Fellow former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, argue that NATO’s history demonstrates it is capable of combining strength and flexibility in times of crisis. They argue for a ‘back to basics’ approach to ease internal tensions, strengthen partnerships and move towards a state of ‘managed co-existence’ with Russia.

19 May 2025 | Stephen Evans and Adam Thomson
Russia-WestRussia-West relationsBelarusDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEuropeForeign policyNATONuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited StatesSenior Associate Fellow
Report

Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in turbulent times: Commentary collection

This commentary collection compiles 15 articles by 18 ELN network members and external collaborators as part of the ELN’s Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project. The collection was originally published for the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee.

31 July 2024 | Oliver Meier, Michael Biontino, Sanaa Alvira, Shizuka Kuramitsu, Olamide Samuel, Dr Irmgard Niemeyer, Maren Vieluf, Ananya Agustin Malhotra, Ward Wilson, Paul Ingram, Adam Thomson, Julia Berghofer, Alexander Kmentt, Pavel Podvig, Maximilian Hoell, Tarja Cronberg, Rishi Paul and Daniel Ajudeonu
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyEmerging technologiesMilitary DoctrineNATONPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussia-West RelationsSecurityWMDs
Commentary

How would humans react to nuclear catastrophe?

Most analyses of the effects of nuclear war focus on the impacts in terms of casualties and climate shocks. But there would be many second-order and third-order effects on political, social, and economic systems. Sir Adam Thomson and Paul Ingram write that it is imperative to avoid a nuclear war. If all such efforts fail, we need to understand what it would mean for global civilisation and what we could start to do to prepare.

19 June 2024 | Adam Thomson and Paul Ingram
NPTGlobal SecurityMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurity
Commentary

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER Podcast – The End of the World for Beginners

Listen to the first episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! In this episode, we explore the basics of man-made existential risk, featuring an introduction to the topic, its relationship to great power competition, how governments have dealt with potential existential risks such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, and how they should respond to them in future.

15 November 2023 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Adam Thomson, Des Browne, Arthur Duforest, Eva Siegmann, Marion Messmer and
Global SecurityBiosecurityClimate changeEmerging technologiesNEVERNuclear WeaponsPodcastsWMDsNEVER