ELN Senior Associate Fellow, Sir Adam Thomson, explores how Europe and Russia might navigate security after the war in Ukraine. Before debating end-states or shared rules, both sides should first agree on “process principles” – practical, step-by-step guidelines to manage confrontation, reduce escalation risks, and gradually foster a more stable, long-term coexistence.
Members of the ELN reflect on what European responses to President Trump’s remarks on Greenland tell us about NATO cohesion and Europe’s capacity to act on its own security.
At last year’s Vilnius Summit, NATO pledged to develop a strategic approach to Russia. But with President Trump engaging Moscow directly and ending the “no business as usual” stance, consensus by the June summit in The Hague is unlikely. ELN Senior Associate Fellow and former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, and Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, argue that in light of this, NATO should pursue a strategic shift—an internal deal towards a “managed co-existence” with Russia. This could align with Trump’s goals while preserving deterrence, sustaining European support for Ukraine, and keeping the U.S. committed to NATO.
NATO’s upcoming Summit in The Hague comes at a key point in the Alliance’s history; Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, American impatience with European underspending on defence, and European fears of American withdrawal from collective defence all represent major threats. Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, and ELN Senior Associate Fellow former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, argue that NATO’s history demonstrates it is capable of combining strength and flexibility in times of crisis. They argue for a ‘back to basics’ approach to ease internal tensions, strengthen partnerships and move towards a state of ‘managed co-existence’ with Russia.
This commentary collection compiles 15 articles by 18 ELN network members and external collaborators as part of the ELN’s Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project. The collection was originally published for the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee.
ELN Director Sir Adam Thomson announces that he will step down from his role at the end of 2024.