From its beginnings in 2011, the Network has been devoted to work towards a safer Europe. Our work addresses the acute security risks, especially nuclear, in the Russia-West confrontation. Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has transformed, accelerated and intensified these risks. Through dialogue and exchange and – where possible – joint analysis of the drivers and futures of conflict, we attempt to reduce risks of miscalculation, misunderstanding, misjudgement, and accidents in relations between Russia and the West. Reducing risks of nuclear war in Europe drives our Russia-West activities. ELN staff and members contribute ideas and analysis to a number of Track Two and Track 1.5 dialogues involving participants from across wider Europe, including Russia and Ukraine, alongside participants from the US and other parts of the world. Our research is also aimed at finding sustainable long-term security arrangements in wider Europe.
Russia’s upcoming Duma election will be the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In an unfavourable context, the Kremlin’s political managers have been highly active in sterilising the ballot. Anton Barbashin, Editorial Director of Riddle Russia, examines how these wartime elections are becoming a demonstration of support for the war and Putin’s continued rule.
Russia’s elections may be repressive and predictable, but that does not make them meaningless. While no one predicts that United Russia will be denied a majority in the upcoming Duma election, managing the political space has become more difficult than in the past. As Julian G. Waller writes, deviation from the Kremlin’s desired result could have wider consequences for elite politics.
Russia’s ability to sustain its war in Ukraine depends on its economic base. YGLN member Sinikka Parviainen argues wartime mobilisation has enabled defence production growth despite sanctions, but deep structural weaknesses are accumulating, signalling long-term fragility. Euro-Atlantic policy should intensify targeted economic pressure while preparing for a weakened yet enduring Russian military and political threat.
This report comes off the back of a two-day scenario-building workshop convened in October by the European Leadership Network and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Istanbul. A diverse group of experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe gathered to explore the implications of several different outcomes of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Europe. Read the full report to view the scenarios, participants’ comments, and policy recommendations for European leaders.
In June, the Contact Group convened for a two-day in-person meeting in Istanbul to discuss the future of the Group and exchange views on the state of, and prospects for, Russia-West relations.
This month, the Contact Group convened to discuss how the war in Ukraine has changed views on Russia in the South Caucasus.
This month, the Contact Group convened to discuss perspectives from China and India on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
On 21 February, the Contact Group on Russia-West Relations met to discuss the new Russian diaspora following the substantial emigration from Russia over the past twelve months.
On 24 January, the ELN Contact Group on Russia-West Relations met to discuss the growing dynamics of great-power conflict, and the similarities and differences between the hardening geopolitical division of today and the Cold War. You can find a summary of the meeting here.