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Policy brief

From crisis to strategy: The OSCE and arms control in a divided Europe

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the OSCE has faced a deep crisis. Russia and Belarus have violated key norms of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, undermining the OSCE’s role in crisis management. Alexander Graef argues that breaking the impasse requires decisive political leadership and multi-level diplomacy. He also argues that growing military activities in Europe highlight the need for military-to-military contacts for managing escalation risks, in which the OSCE can facilitate necessary dialogues and support future monitoring activities as it has in the past.

14 March 2025 | Alexander Graef
OSCERussia-WestOSCERussia-West relationsArms ControlConventional Arms ControlDefenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEmerging technologiesEuropeForeign policyMilitary DoctrineNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear WeaponsOpen Skies TreatyOSCERisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraine
Report

Assessing the OSCE Toolbox: Opportunities for a safer Europe

For nearly 50 years, the OSCE has developed a toolbox to address security challenges across wider Europe. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dismantled Europe’s existing security architecture, rendering many OSCE tools ineffective. Former ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod argues that in spite of this, a resurgence of political commitment could reinvigorate the OSCE’s tools, enabling them to be adapted to current challenges. This report recommends concrete actions to be undertaken by the OSCE to improve the efficacy of its toolbox.

14 March 2025 | Katia Glod
OSCERussia-WestOSCERussia-West relationsArms ControlBalkansBaltic SeaBalticsBlack SeaCentral EuropeConventional Arms ControlDefenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEUEuropeForeign policyMoldovaNATONuclear DisarmamentNuclear WeaponsOpen Skies TreatyOSCERisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited Nations
Report

How to save the world: Influencing policy on the biggest risks to humanity

A new report published from the European Leadership Network’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) project calls for a systemic international approach to be taken to address man-made existential risk. The risks from nuclear weapons, climate change, biological threats, and AI are interconnected and cross-cutting lessons should be drawn.

4 March 2025 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Nicolò Miotto, Arthur Duforest, Ezgi Yazicioglu, Jieqiong Duan, Rebecca Donaldson, Valeriia Hesse, Jasper Götting and Emil Nafis Iftekhar
EDTsEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlBiosecurityClimate changeCyberDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyDisinformationEmerging technologiesEuropeGovernanceHybrid warfareNEVERNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDs
Policy brief

Blessed are the peacemakers: Making a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine stick

While Trump is pushing for a rapid end to the war in Ukraine, he will find that there are huge obstacles to negotiating a comprehensive solution. Edward Ifft writes that it is important to implement a ceasefire without waiting for such negotiations to bear fruit, both to stop the massive destruction and killing and to improve the atmosphere in which to carry out these comprehensive negotiations. This paper looks at how to achieve such a ceasefire and the challenges of designing and implementing one.

3 March 2025 | Edward Ifft
Russia-West relationsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineUnited States
Policy brief

Assessing the implications of integrating AI in nuclear decision-making systems

This policy brief analyses the integration of AI into nuclear command, control and communications systems (NC3), exploring potential benefits and significant risks. Former ELN policy fellow and Non-Resident Expert on AI at CNS Alice Saltini highlights the need for a better assessment of risks and the establishment of thresholds for integration to prevent miscalculations and nuclear escalation. It proposes that the EU leads international dialogue on AI risks in the nuclear domain in relevant international discussions.

11 February 2025 | Alice Saltini
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear Weapons
Policy brief

Stop the bleeding: How to protect existing NPT disarmament agreements and commitments

Steps to protect the Article 6 acquis on nuclear disarmament are a necessary condition for success of the 2026 NPT RevCon, but there is uncertainty under what political circumstances states parties will convene in 2026. As the nuclear disarmament acquis is currently threatened from many directions, this policy brief considers what steps states parties may take to protect the NPT under different scenarios.

16 December 2024
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectCTBTNPTNPTProjectNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear Weapons
Report

Strengthening parliamentary oversight of the security sector in the Western Balkans

The Western Balkans stands at a critical juncture as several states grapple with increasingly authoritarian political environments that threaten their democratic institutions and legal frameworks. In this new report, Dr Leon Hartwell provides an in-depth analysis of parliamentary oversight in seven Western Balkan states – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia – and offers actionable recommendations for these states, the EU, and NATO to address these challenges.

27 November 2024 | Dr Leon Hartwell
BalkansEUNATOSecurity
Report

Resolving conflicts: An IEP-ELN roundtable

In October 2024, the ELN and IEP convened global peace experts to explore improving conflict resolution amid rising global violence. Discussions focused on local and international solutions, data-driven prevention, and IEP’s Positive Peace framework. Participants urged bold, inclusive strategies to stop conflict escalation and revitalise international commitment to peacebuilding.

1 October 2024
Arms ControlConventional Arms ControlDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyForeign policyGovernanceHybrid warfareInternational LawMilitary DoctrineRisk ReductionSecurityTerrorismUnited Nations
Report

Workshop report: The OSCE and its role in strengthening European security architecture

In July 2024, the ELN convened a group of international experts to explore the historic, current, and future role of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and its toolbox in maintaining and strengthening European security architecture. This workshop report details the participants’ discussions on the OSCE’s history, its operations in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, the role of the OSCE in conflict management and post-conflict normalisation, organisational successes and failures, and its unique status as a platform for dialogue between the West and Russia.

15 August 2024 | Maria Branea
OSCERussia-West relationsArms ControlDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyEastern EuropeEmerging technologiesEUEuropeForeign policyInternational LawNATOOSCERisk ReductionRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited Nations