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Policy brief

Turning down the heat: Addressing the growing salience of nuclear weapons

At the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee in New York this month a key issue likely to spark debate is the increasing salience of nuclear weapons. All five nuclear-weapon states under the NPT are increasing the role and significance of nuclear weapons in their military and security policies, at odds with the commitments accepted under the NPT. This new policy brief from the ELN’s Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty project examines this challenge and offers recommendations for states to address it within the NPT framework.

16 April 2025
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectNPTNPTProjectNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear Weapons
Report

Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in turbulent times: Commentary collection volume 3

This commentary collection compiles 9 articles by ELN network members and external collaborators as part of the ELN’s Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project. The collection was originally published for the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee.

11 April 2025 | Eleonora Neri, Michael Biontino, Jana Baldus, Dr Caroline Fehl, Alexander Hoppenbrouwers, Nicholas Lokker, Rishi Paul, Nikita Gryazin, Eva-Nour Repussard and Verena Jackson
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear Weapons
Report

Meeting report: Iran, Europe and the US – new approaches to nuclear diplomacy

In January 2025, the ELN with support from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF), convened a roundtable to discuss ways forward for a resumption of Iran-US nuclear negotiations. European, American, Asian, and Middle East experts discussed the role of Gulf actors in developing a new deal, Iran’s shift in priorities under President Pezeshkian, and the implications of the changes in the regional architecture as a result of the war in Gaza.

21 March 2025 | Roxane Farmanfarmaian
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationEuropeIranIsraelJCPOANuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsUnited States
Policy brief

Focused Multilateralism: How China and Germany can better engage on arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation

Engaging China on multilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation has become more urgent, but also more difficult. Even in times of increased competition between China, Russia, and the US, Europeans have agency and will need to up their level of ambition in pursuing their own interests in making multilateral instruments more resilient. ELN Policy & Research Director Oliver Meier and Michael Staack call for focused, substantive, and flexible dialogues between Europeans and Chinese.

18 March 2025 | Oliver Meier and Michael Staack
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationArms ControlChinaCTBTEuropeNuclear Arms ControlNuclear WeaponsRisk Reduction
Policy brief

From crisis to strategy: The OSCE and arms control in a divided Europe

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the OSCE has faced a deep crisis. Russia and Belarus have violated key norms of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, undermining the OSCE’s role in crisis management. Alexander Graef argues that breaking the impasse requires decisive political leadership and multi-level diplomacy. He also argues that growing military activities in Europe highlight the need for military-to-military contacts for managing escalation risks, in which the OSCE can facilitate necessary dialogues and support future monitoring activities as it has in the past.

14 March 2025 | Alexander Graef
OSCERussia-WestOSCERussia-West relationsArms ControlConventional Arms ControlDefenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEmerging technologiesEuropeForeign policyMilitary DoctrineNATONuclear Arms ControlNuclear WeaponsOpen Skies TreatyOSCERisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraine
Report

Assessing the OSCE Toolbox: Opportunities for a safer Europe

For nearly 50 years, the OSCE has developed a toolbox to address security challenges across wider Europe. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dismantled Europe’s existing security architecture, rendering many OSCE tools ineffective. Former ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod argues that in spite of this, a resurgence of political commitment could reinvigorate the OSCE’s tools, enabling them to be adapted to current challenges. This report recommends concrete actions to be undertaken by the OSCE to improve the efficacy of its toolbox.

14 March 2025 | Katia Glod
OSCERussia-WestOSCERussia-West relationsArms ControlBalkansBaltic SeaBalticsBlack SeaCentral EuropeConventional Arms ControlDefenceDiplomacyEastern EuropeEUEuropeForeign policyMoldovaNATONuclear DisarmamentNuclear WeaponsOpen Skies TreatyOSCERisk ReductionRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited Nations
Report

How to save the world: Influencing policy on the biggest risks to humanity

A new report published from the European Leadership Network’s New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) project calls for a systemic international approach to be taken to address man-made existential risk. The risks from nuclear weapons, climate change, biological threats, and AI are interconnected and cross-cutting lessons should be drawn.

4 March 2025 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Nicolò Miotto, Arthur Duforest, Ezgi Yazicioglu, Jieqiong Duan, Rebecca Donaldson, Valeriia Hesse, Jasper Götting and Emil Nafis Iftekhar
EDTsEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionArms ControlBiosecurityClimate changeCyberDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyDisinformationEmerging technologiesEuropeGovernanceHybrid warfareNEVERNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionWMDs
Policy brief

Blessed are the peacemakers: Making a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine stick

While Trump is pushing for a rapid end to the war in Ukraine, he will find that there are huge obstacles to negotiating a comprehensive solution. Edward Ifft writes that it is important to implement a ceasefire without waiting for such negotiations to bear fruit, both to stop the massive destruction and killing and to improve the atmosphere in which to carry out these comprehensive negotiations. This paper looks at how to achieve such a ceasefire and the challenges of designing and implementing one.

3 March 2025 | Edward Ifft
Russia-West relationsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraineUnited States
Policy brief

Assessing the implications of integrating AI in nuclear decision-making systems

This policy brief analyses the integration of AI into nuclear command, control and communications systems (NC3), exploring potential benefits and significant risks. Former ELN policy fellow and Non-Resident Expert on AI at CNS Alice Saltini highlights the need for a better assessment of risks and the establishment of thresholds for integration to prevent miscalculations and nuclear escalation. It proposes that the EU leads international dialogue on AI risks in the nuclear domain in relevant international discussions.

11 February 2025 | Alice Saltini
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionEmerging technologiesNuclear SecurityNuclear Weapons