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Commentary

The day after: Future of development aid in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova

Development aid faces unprecedented disruption following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and USAID’s 2025 withdrawal, leaving vulnerable states exposed. The YGLN’s Economy Working Group consulted with analysts and practitioners on the ground to gain a deeper understanding of their perspectives on the cessation of aid and their future outlook. Experts urge renewed democratic aid, stronger EU commitment, transparency, and vigilance against authoritarian influence.

30 October 2025 | Sinikka Parviainen
DemocracyDiplomacyEconomyEnergyEuropeForeign policyGeorgiaMoldovaUkraine
Commentary

Violations of NATO airspace: How to restore deterrence

The recent violations of Allied airspace represent an unprecedented escalation of tensions between NATO and Russia. Matus Halas writes that NATO must try to protect its airspace against unauthorised activities, but the inconsistency of approach within NATO makes deterrence harder. While different incursions must be treated differently, there needs to be consistency both over time and across member states.

22 October 2025 | Matus Halas
Russia-West relationsAir spaceDeterrenceEuropeNATORussia
Commentary

The Russian New START initiative: How can Europeans respond to a poisonous offer?

Putin’s proposal to extend the nuclear weapons treaty for a year has been met with silence from most European leaders so far. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Julia Berghofer writes that there are legitimate concerns over the sincerity of Russia’s proposal, but the West should not let go of an opportunity to leverage Russian interests. While Europeans have only a limited role to play, they must still try their best to influence the process.

15 October 2025 | Julia Berghofer
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationArms ControlEuropeNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaUnited States
Commentary

Europe and the end of New START

In light of Putin’s recent offer of a voluntary, time-limited extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) obligations to the US, ELN Policy and Research Director Oliver Meier writes that US allies in Europe should seize this opportunity to help shape the outcome of deliberations about how to respond to Putin’s initiative.

8 October 2025 | Oliver Meier
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlEuropeNuclear Arms ControlRisk ReductionRussia-West RelationsUnited States
Commentary

Not so quiet on the Western Front: Why Russia’s Zapad exercise highlights the need for military confidence-building measures

Russia’s strategic exercise Zapad, which begins later this week, is not only about combat preparation; it is also an instrument of strategic communication. The real challenge is reading it correctly. ELN Senior Policy Fellow Alexander Graef writes that this is where confidence-and security-building measures (CSBMs) may help. They can reinforce deterrence by demonstrating capabilities to observers and clarify the difference between sabre-rattling and genuine threats, but only if all sides share an interest in stability.

9 September 2025 | Alexander Graef
Russia-West relationsBelarusCSBMsRussiaRussia-West Relations
Commentary

Europe needs 360º resilience and the private sector is key

The recent UK Strategic Defence Review and the French National Strategic Review both stress the importance of the readiness of European countries to withstand and recover from a wide variety of threats. ELN network member Nicholas Dungan writes that business leaders need to seize the initiative and assume their own responsibility for the implementation of a whole-of-society comprehensive security model across the European continent, together with their political and military counterparts.

2 September 2025 | Nicholas Dungan
DefenceEuropeSecurity
Commentary

Israel’s Iran options after the 12-day war

Any sign that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear and missile programme would likely push Israeli decision makers to order the next major attack against targets in Iran. But this would require the consent of the Trump administration, writes Meir Javedanfar. The Israeli government considers its ability to get Trump to join the war in June a considerable accomplishment and will unlikely want to sacrifice this achievement by angering Trump, especially as the next US-Israel military-assistance MOU is up for renegotiation.

27 August 2025 | Meir Javedanfar
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationIranIsraelMiddle EastNuclear WeaponsUnited States
Commentary

A narrow path forward: Iran and the snapback deadline

By the end of August, Britain, France, and Germany have to decide whether to invoke the “snapback” mechanism, which would automatically restore pre-2015 UN sanctions on Iran. Hamidreza Azizi writes that a narrow path remains open for those willing to take it. He proposes a roadmap for phased cooperation with the IAEA, anchored in a parallel diplomatic track with Europe and the US. The window for such an approach may close within weeks; quick action on both sides is essential.

26 August 2025 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranIranMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationIranMiddle EastNPTNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsSanctions
Commentary

How opposing views on nuclear deterrence fracture the non-proliferation regime

Competing perceptions of nuclear deterrence are no longer peripheral disagreements within the NPT and are now driving deep divisions within the regime, threatening its very stability. ELN Policy Fellow Jana Baldus urges states to bridge this divide by recognising differing security perspectives and addressing concerns on all sides. Nuclear-armed states must clarify the rationale behind deterrence and confront double standards, while non-nuclear states should engage with the wider security consequences of rejecting deterrence and consider Russia’s and China’s strategies as well as those of the West.

20 August 2025 | Jana Baldus
NPTMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT ProjectArms ControlDeterrenceInternational LawNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk Reduction