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Commentary

The Women Leaders Podcast: Georgia on the edge

Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the European Leadership Network, is joined by Salome Samadashvili, a prominent member of the opposition of the Georgian parliament, to discuss the protests that have erupted on the streets of Tbilisi since the Georgian parliament voted to designate Western-funded NGOs as foreign agents. Critics of the new law allege it negatively impacts Georgia’s aspirations to join the EU and further bolsters the perception that Georgia’s government is aligning itself with Russia.

3 May 2024 | Ilana Bet-El and Florence Ferrando
Black SeaDemocracyDiplomacyEastern EuropeEUEuropeForeign policyGeorgiaGovernanceNATOPodcastsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraine
Commentary

Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

As the situation on the battlefield has changed in recent months to the detriment of Ukraine, a “prolonged war” where there is no decisive military victory on either side is the most likely scenario, writes ELN Policy Fellow Katia Glod. Based on a scenario-building workshop with experts from Ukraine, Russia, and wider Europe, she outlines what implications this could have for Europe and how the EU and UK can prepare for it.

3 May 2024 | Katia Glod
Euro-Atlantic SecurityRussia-West relationsEUEuropeRussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraineUnited Kingdom
Commentary

Out of the shadow war? Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel

Following Iran’s direct attack on Israel on 13th April, Hemidreaza Azizi examines both the official and unofficial discourse in Iran in recent days. He writes that most political experts and analysts in Iran seem to agree that Iran’s goal has been to restore deterrence and not to enter into war. However, concerns about the outbreak of an unintended war and its destructive consequences appear to be more pronounced among experts than among official figures.

19 April 2024 | Dr Hamidreza Azizi
IranGlobal SecurityDeterrenceIranMiddle EastNuclear WeaponsSecurity
Commentary

The Women Leaders Podcast: The Middle East – Endless escalation

Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, speaks with Jodi Rudoren, Editor-in-Chief of the Forward and former New York Times Bureau Chief in Israel, and Dr Roxane Farmanfarmaian of Cambridge University, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, and an expert on Iran and the Middle East. They discuss their own experiences of 7 October, their reactions to the war in Gaza, the implications for the media, geopolitics and the region, and the escalatory nature of the war following Iran’s increased role in the conflict over the past week.

19 April 2024 | Ilana Bet-El, Florence Ferrando and Roxane Farmanfarmaian
IranGlobal SecurityDefenceDiplomacyForeign policyIranMiddle EastPodcastsSecurityTerrorism
Commentary

South Korea’s dangerous sense of isolation

Tanya Ogilvie-White writes that South Korea is becoming increasingly isolated from its Asia-Pacific security partners – Japan, Australia, the US, and the UK – in the way that it views the threat from North Korea. South Korea’s regional security partners’ increased focus on China and lessened attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme, risks isolating South Korea and undermining proliferation norms. Ogilvie-White argues that heightened collaborations are needed to avoid this.

17 April 2024 | Dr Tanya Ogilvie-White
Asia-PacificGlobal SecurityAsia-Pacific RegionChinaDefenceDeterrenceDPRKForeign policyNorth KoreaNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionUnited KingdomWMDs
Commentary

Is the bridge to peace in Ukraine too far? Principles for a future peace plan

Former ambassadors to NATO, Ahmet Üzümcü and Fatih Ceylan, look ahead at what a potential peace deal in Ukraine could look like. They write that neither mutual accusations nor wishful thinking can be taken as a guide to chart the future of broader European security. Instead, the focus should be on exploring peace by putting together potential elements of an enduring and sustainable deal that would ultimately serve the interests of global security.

9 April 2024 | Ahmet Üzümcü and Mehmet Fatih Ceylan
Euro-Atlantic SecurityEUNATORussiaRussia-West RelationsSecurityUkraine
Commentary

The Women Leaders Podcast: Winds of change in Turkey? Decrypting the recent local elections

Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the ELN, speaks with Zeynep Atikkan, a renowned Turkish journalist, on the ramifications of the opposition CHP party’s victory against President Erdogan’s AKP in Turkey’s recent local elections. Together, they dissect the state of Turkish politics, covering the economy, the Kurdish issue, the role of women in Turkish society, evolving political dynamics, and more.

5 April 2024 | Ilana Bet-El and Florence Ferrando
DiplomacyEconomyEuropeGenderMiddle EastPodcastsTerrorismTurkey
Commentary

The potential terrorist use of large language models for chemical and biological terrorism

In our latest New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) commentary, Nicolò Miotto explores the potential existential risks stemming from the terrorist use of large language models (LLMs) and AI to manufacture chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. In the commentary he explores how LLMs and AI have enabled terrorist groups to enhance their capabilities so far, and what governments, the private sector, and NGOs need to do to mitigate future risks.

5 April 2024 | Nicolò Miotto
Global SecurityBiosecurityCSBMsDefenceEmerging technologiesGovernanceNEVERNuclear SecurityRisk ReductionSecurityTerrorismWMDs
Commentary

Why the Ukraine and Gaza wars mean Russia could now support a nuclear-armed Iran

Meir Javedanfar writes that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war mean that a nuclear Iran may no longer be viewed as a threat by the Russian leadership. Javedanfar argues that a nuclear Iran could boost Russia’s leverage in the Middle East and divert attention from its war in Europe.

3 April 2024 | Meir Javedanfar
Global SecurityIranJCPOAMiddle EastNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussia