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Commentary

How would humans react to nuclear catastrophe?

Most analyses of the effects of nuclear war focus on the impacts in terms of casualties and climate shocks. But there would be many second-order and third-order effects on political, social, and economic systems. Sir Adam Thomson and Paul Ingram write that it is imperative to avoid a nuclear war. If all such efforts fail, we need to understand what it would mean for global civilisation and what we could start to do to prepare.

19 June 2024 | Adam Thomson and Paul Ingram
NPTGlobal SecurityMultilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurity
Commentary

Ok, Doomer! The NEVER podcast – Biological threats: Going viral

Listen to the fourth episode of the NEVER podcast – Ok, Doomer! In this episode, we explore biological existential and global catastrophic risks. Featuring an introduction to the topic and an exploration of some of the technological mitigation techniques we have available for biological risks, a panel discussion exploring the current state of the international governance of biological risks, and we will also delve into whether humanity’s recent brush with COVID-19 has better or worse prepared us for future pandemics, be they man-made or natural.

17 June 2024 | Jane Kinninmont, Edan Simpson, Jasper Götting, Angela Kane, Anemone Franz, Emil Nafis Iftekhar and Bekki Field
EDTsEmerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk ReductionBiosecurityDefenceDiplomacyDisinformationEmerging technologiesGovernanceInternational LawNEVERPodcastsSecurityWMDs
Commentary

Unstable systems: Why geoengineering will solve neither climate change nor climate geopolitics

As more attention is paid to geoengineering technologies that claim to mitigate the existential risks posed by climate change, Jakob Gomolka, from our New European Voices on Existential Risk (NEVER) network, argues that policymakers needs to understand the geopolitical implications of these technologies, let alone their climatic side-effects, and calls for more alignment in the international governance of geoengineering technologies.

6 June 2024 | Jakob Gomolka
Global SecurityClimate changeDiplomacyEmerging technologiesGovernanceInternational LawNEVERRisk ReductionUnited Nations
Commentary

Time to engage seriously with the TPNW’s security concerns

Alexander Kmentt, Director for Disarmament, Arms Control, and Nonproliferation at the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and ELN Senior Network member, writes that opponents of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in nuclear-armed states should stop dismissing the treaty outright. Instead, they should begin addressing the legitimate security concerns surrounding deterrence that are raised by its supporters.

4 June 2024 | Alexander Kmentt
NPTGlobal SecurityArms ControlDefenceDeterrenceDiplomacyInternational LawMilitary DoctrineNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear DisarmamentNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurityWMDs
Commentary

The Women Leaders Podcast: Defenders of Ukraine

Ilana Bet-El, Senior Associate Fellow at the European Leadership Network, is joined by Inna Pidluska, Deputy Executive Director of the International Renaissance Foundation in Ukraine, and Anna Kovalenko, former member of the Ukrainian Parliament and a prominent civic activist, for a lively discussion surrounding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s fight to join the democratic world, and what Ukraine means to Ukrainians.

31 May 2024 | Ilana Bet-El and Florence Ferrando
Russia-West relationsBlack SeaDefenceDemocracyDiplomacyEastern EuropeEUEuropeForeign policyNATOPodcastsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraine
Commentary

Quieting the nuclear rattle: Responding to Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons exercises

Last week, Russia announced it had started tactical nuclear weapons exercises near Ukraine. Pavel Podvig explores whether this move is an attempt to go beyond signalling and bring non-strategic nuclear weapons closer to the frontline and asks how the international community should respond.

29 May 2024 | Pavel Podvig
NPTGlobal SecurityNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRussiaRussia-West RelationsUkraine
Commentary

Iran: The implications of President Raisi’s death

The ELN’s Policy and Impact Director, Jane Kinninmont, analyses why the deaths of Iran’s President and Foreign Minister, Ebrahim Raisi and Hossein Amirabdollahian, doesn’t necessarily represent a shift in global politics. She explains that the probable candidates to replace Raisi are likely to endorse a continuation of current Iranian foreign policy, and any changes will be hard to notice for external observers.

22 May 2024 | Jane Kinninmont
IranGlobal SecurityArms ControlDefenceDiplomacyForeign policyIranJCPOAMiddle EastNPTNuclear Arms ControlNuclear SecurityNuclear WeaponsRisk ReductionSecurityUnited StatesWMDs