ELN publications feature authoritative research, high-quality analysis, diverse viewpoints and practical recommendations to address current foreign, defence, and security policy challenges.
Continuing our commentary series exploring European perspectives ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference, Łukasz Kulesa sets out Poland’s approach, balancing firm support for the Treaty with heightened security concerns, reaffirming non-proliferation commitments while prioritizing deterrence credibility, NATO cohesion, and pragmatic outcomes in a deeply polarised and uncertain global environment.
AI-enabled warfare is giving the United States unprecedented tactical reach while eroding strategic restraint, writes Erasmus University Rotterdam Professor Michal Onderco. From the Caracas raid to strikes in Iran, reduced risks enable operations with minimal casualties. That ease lowers the bar for war, leaving allies exposed to miscalculation and dependence on a partner willing to act without planning the aftermath.
In the fourth in our series exploring P5 perspectives on the forthcoming 2026 NPT Review Conference, Tianjiao Jiang sets out China’s position, emphasising the need for renewed P5 dialogue, greater strategic clarity around nuclear modernisation, and practical steps to reduce nuclear risks. He highlights China’s opposition to extended deterrence and the importance of cooperative approaches to tackling regional proliferation challenges.
Veteran diplomat and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Emeritus Hans Blix warns that a volatile world of renewed great-power conflict and accelerating rearmament is eroding the foundations of arms control. While nuclear deterrence still restrains escalation, diplomatic failure, proliferation risks, and waning trust in global agreements raise urgent questions about whether meaningful disarmament, and lasting peace, remain politically achievable.
In the third in our series exploring P5 perspectives on the forthcoming 2026 NPT Review Conference, Sahil Shah looks at the UK’s approach. He argues that its most effective role is not to promise what the P5 cannot deliver, but to strengthen the conditions under which progress remains possible: practical measures grounded in existing commitments, sustained dialogue, and continued investment in the institutions and relationships that keep restraint possible.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent speech at the Île-Longue submarine base introduced a long-awaited framework for reconfiguring European deterrence amid an increasingly dangerous and uncertain security landscape. Julia Berghofer and Astrid Chevreuil examine how France’s “forward deterrence” doctrine reshapes Franco-German cooperation, NATO dynamics, and Europe’s nuclear future while addressing emerging disarmament tensions.
Continuing our commentary series exploring European perspectives ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference, Stephan Klement sets out the European Union’s approach, reaffirming the Treaty’s central role while recognising the mounting pressures it faces. He underscores a growing emphasis on pragmatic steps alongside efforts to strengthen implementation, accountability, and bridge divides in a fractured geopolitical landscape.
In the second in our series exploring P5 perspectives on the forthcoming 2026 NPT Review Conference, Arms Control Association Board Chair and diplomat Thomas Countryman examines the United States’ approach, highlighting a lack of ambition on arms control and risk reduction, and raising doubts about whether the Trump administration will play a constructive role in securing a successful outcome at the RevCon.
Continuing our commentary series exploring different European perspectives ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference, Carmen Wunderlich writes that Germany’s current policy towards the NPT reflects not only a change in tone but also a gradual shift in priorities towards pragmatic measures such as risk reduction and confidence-building, while multilateral disarmament seems to have lost political salience.