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2024–25: Consolidating and increasing policy impact

Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project development.

Phase three.

By 2024, the project placed greater emphasis on generating practical impact. A scenario-based approach was introduced to support forward-looking analysis and develop a range of recommendations for possible outcomes during the review cycle – A blue, grey, and dark sky approach.

Throughout this period, in addition to attending external conferences, project members remained actively engaged with policymakers and NPT community experts. We again hosted formal side events at the 2024 NPT Preparatory Conference, this time in Geneva, adding a separate programme of activities for our younger generation leaders. In addition to formal interactions, informal diplomatic exchanges gained importance, with small-group discussions and diplomatic dinners providing opportunities for more open conversations and fostering trust across political and regional divides.

The project’s outputs began to show clearer signs of influence. Its ideas were reflected in working papers and national statements, including discussions on nuclear risk reduction and the salience of nuclear weapons, such as those delivered by the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Affairs and the US Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability, Alexandra Bell.

Lessons and impact

The 2024-25 phase of the project demonstrated the unique value of integrating policy research with diplomatic engagement to support and contribute to policy development and dialogue, particularly in times of increasing polarisation and tension. The project developed a more organic, flexible and practical approach that identified areas for common ground and progress.

Select publications from 2024–25

Policy brief

Stop the bleeding: How to protect existing NPT disarmament agreements and commitments

Steps to protect the Article 6 acquis on nuclear disarmament are a necessary condition for success of the 2026 NPT RevCon, but there is uncertainty under what political circumstances states parties will convene in 2026. As the nuclear disarmament acquis is currently threatened from many directions, this policy brief considers what steps states parties may take to protect the NPT under different scenarios.

16 December 2024
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT Project
Policy brief

Cloudbusting: Ways to address the growing salience of nuclear weapons in the NPT

The ambition of efforts to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons will depend on the overall trajectory of international politics. But the growing role and significance of nuclear weapons is both the result and a driver of rivalry between the nuclear-weapon states. Ahead of the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee, this policy brief outlines what measures NPT states parties could take to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons depending on the international security environment.

16 July 2024
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT Project
Report

Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in turbulent times: Commentary collection volume 2

This commentary collection compiles 15 articles by 18 ELN network members and external collaborators as part of the ELN’s Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty project. The collection was originally published for the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee.

31 July 2024 | Oliver Meier, Michael Biontino, Sanaa Alvira, Shizuka Kuramitsu, Olamide Samuel, Dr Irmgard Niemeyer, Maren Vieluf, Ananya Agustin Malhotra, Ward Wilson, Paul Ingram, Adam Thomson, Julia Berghofer, Alexander Kmentt, Pavel Podvig, Maximilian Hoell, Tarja Cronberg, Rishi Paul and Daniel Ajudeonu
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT Project