Any monitoring mission deployed to observe an end to the hostilities in Ukraine is likely to incorporate a range of remote-sensing technologies to support its verification activities. Previous monitoring missions have relied primarily on satellite imaging, camera-drones, and stationary CCTV as technical tools to support onsite observers.

This policy brief by Dr Ben D.E. Dando, Dr Kjølv Egeland, and Dr Sebastian Schutte, finds that scientific advances and a growing availability of relevant data have made geophysical or ‘seismo-acoustic’ analysis a cost-effective means of complementing, backing up, and in some cases replacing other ceasefire monitoring technologies. Analysing small vibrations in the earth and/or air, a seismo-acoustic monitoring solution could help detect conflict-related explosions in all environments, including areas deep behind the prospective line of separation. Seismo-acoustic techniques could also help monitor the integrity of borders, demilitarised zones, or weapon stores.

Drawing on insights from the Norwegian research institute NORSAR’s real-time monitoring of the 2022 Ukraine conflict, “Widening the ceasefire toolkit: The promise of geophysical monitoring in Ukraine”, shows that seismo-acoustic methods can reliably detect and locate artillery and missile strikes at vast distances. More specifically, we suggest that seismo-acoustic monitoring techniques could fill at least seven roles:

1. Base layer monitoring: Seismo-acoustic monioring techniques could provide continuous, basic coverage of the entire conflict zone, including areas not extensively monitored by other technologies.
2. Redundancy and resilience: Seismo-acoustic monitoring techniques could help back up more sabotage-prone technologies such as stationary or drone-borne surveillance cameras. Seismic sensors can be installed underground or in secure locations far from active combat zones.
3. Early warning: Automated seismo-acoustic monitoring could enable rapid detection of renewed hostilities or heavy bombardments, supporting early-warning systems to protect civilians, alert observers, and prevent escalation.
4. Detection and timing of attacks: Seismo-acoustic monitoring could help provide near-real-time identification and localisation of explosions, reducing the need for risky or time-consuming field investigations.
5. Transparency and accountability: Seismo-acoustic monitoring mechanisms could provide objective, time-stamped data that might be visualised as maps or event catalogues, helping verify claims, counter misinformation, and deter violations.
6. Enhanced perimeter and facility monitoring: Using the technique of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), inexpensive fibre-optic cables can detect footsteps, vehicle movements, or tampering near borders, demilitarised zones, or weapon storage sites.
7. Forensic analysis of major events: Seismo-acoustic tools could support post-hoc investigations of events of particular importance (e.g., infrastructure damage or suspected attacks) as demonstrated in analyses of the Kakhovka Dam and Nord Stream incidents.
8. The potential contributions of seismo-acoustic monitoring should be further explored through political consultations and policy research.

Read the policy brief here

Image credit: Alamy / SOPA Images

The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated in this policy brief represent the views of the author rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.