Skip to content
Policy brief | 16 April 2025

Turning down the heat: Addressing the growing salience of nuclear weapons

NPT NPT NPTProject Nuclear Arms Control Nuclear Disarmament Nuclear Security Nuclear Weapons Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation NPT Project ELN
Download PDF 329KB

This month, governments, civil society and experts will come together in New York for the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee. A key issue likely to spark debate at the PrepCom is the increasing salience of nuclear weapons. All five nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the NPT are increasing the role and significance of nuclear weapons in their military and security policies by lowering the threshold for nuclear use in military doctrines, increasing nuclear build-ups, modernising and upgrading arsenals, and mission creep. These developments are at odds with the commitments accepted under the NPT to “further diminish the role and significance of nuclear weapons in all military and security concepts, doctrines and policies”.

This new policy brief from the ELN’s Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty project examines this challenge and offers recommendations for states to address it within the NPT framework. This requires both reaffirming NPT commitments and ensuring that security policies prioritise de-escalation rather than using nuclear threats as a political tool. Recognising that this as a critical step toward nuclear disarmament and risk reduction is imperative, and the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee and 2026 Review Conference will be central to this process.

The policy brief recommends:
  • All NWS should commit to immediate action to prevent the danger of an overheating system where all NWS keep lowering the threshold of nuclear use and nuclear threats become normalised
  • The P5 should restore a climate of nuclear restraint and engage in dialogues on nuclear doctrines among themselves and with non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) to rebuild trust and reduce the risk of misunderstandings
  • Within the NPT, NWS and NNWS should engage in dialogues on security and threat perceptions, the inadmissibility of nuclear threats, and negative security assurances with the aim of strengthening transparency and accountability and creating instutionalised forms of engagement.

Read the policy brief

The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated in this policy brief represent the views of the author rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.

Image: John Elk III / Alamy Stock Photo

Related content

Commentary

Taking responsibility: How NPT members can support justice for victims of nuclear weapons – and through this, the NPT

This week, the Japanese organisation Nihon Hidankyo, founded by atomic bomb survivors (Hibakusha), will receive the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize demonstrating an increased international interest in past and ongoing harm caused by nuclear weapons. While the NPT largely remains silent on the humanitarian and environmental consequences of nuclear weapons and the associated legacies of the nuclear past, Jana Baldus and Caroline Fehl write that NPT members can do more to further the cause of nuclear justice, and that doing so is in their own best interest.

Commentary

The CTBT: A success story and keystone for reinforcing the NPT regime ahead of the next 2026 NPT Review Conference

Despite not yet entering into force, the CTBT has seen some remarkable successes in establishing a global norm against nuclear testing and a robust verification system. However, rising geopolitical tensions underscore the urgent need for full ratification. Eleonora Neri of the Younger Generation Leaders Network (YGLN) argues for states to redouble efforts to universalise the Treaty and reinforce global non-proliferation commitments.

Policy brief

Cloudbusting: Ways to address the growing salience of nuclear weapons in the NPT

The ambition of efforts to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons will depend on the overall trajectory of international politics. But the growing role and significance of nuclear weapons is both the result and a driver of rivalry between the nuclear-weapon states. Ahead of the 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee, this policy brief outlines what measures NPT states parties could take to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons depending on the international security environment.