The international community faces a re-emergence of strategic great power competition, linked with disquieting and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric by some actors and thus a perceived lowered threshold for the use of nuclear weapons (e.g. non-strategic nuclear weapons). This is accentuated by persistent regional crises and the emergence of new regional crisis scenarios, with global political and economic implications involving both nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states and continued risks of nuclear proliferation crises and proliferation dynamics.

Both as a driver of and as a reaction to the present security environment, nuclear weapons states, for their part, have already maintained or increased the salience of nuclear weapons in their respective doctrines

In addition, concerns related to new offensive and defensive weapon systems call for urgent attention, in particular in relation to new technologies and capabilities that could blur the line between conventional weapons and WMD, such as the proliferation of strategic-scale conventional weapons, new cyber threats, counter-space capabilities, and qualitatively new missile technology. All of this could create new instabilities and challenges to stability and/or increase the risk of miscalculation and, in the extreme scenario, nuclear escalation.

Recommendations

• Against this backdrop, there is an urgent need for an inclusive dialogue on nuclear doctrines, declaratory policies, and security assurances between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states. Given the real risks and threats to peace and security, this is a shared responsibility that requires serious commitments from nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states alike.
• As the central pillar of the international nuclear arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation architecture, the NPT is the appropriate forum for a dialogue on nuclear doctrines, declaratory policies and security assurances.
• Such a dialogue can fulfil several important functions by improving the international security environment, re-establishing strategic trust, and building confidence between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapon states, as well as among nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapon states. In addition, a dialogue aimed at elevating the nuclear threshold could reduce the risk associated with any use of nuclear weapons.
• Meaningful dialogue should cover a broad range of elements relevant to nuclear doctrines, declaratory policies, and security assurances. Furthermore, appropriate consideration should be given to new strategic offensive and defensive nuclear capabilities, new conventional weapons, emerging and disruptive technologies, the spectre of biological and chemical warfare, and regional crisis scenarios.

Read the policy brief here.

The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated in this policy brief represent the views of the author rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.

Image: UN Geneva