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Policy brief | 11 February 2025

Assessing the implications of integrating AI in nuclear decision-making systems

Image of Alice Saltini

Alice Saltini |Former ELN Policy Fellow and Non-Resident Expert on AI at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)

Emerging technologies Nuclear Security Nuclear Weapons Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk Reduction YGLN
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This policy brief analyses the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into nuclear command, control and communications systems (NC3), exploring potential benefits and significant risks.

While cautious AI integration can have some benefits for enhancing intelligence collection and situational awareness by automating processes and analysing vast amounts of data, it presents grave risks due to its unreliability, opacity, susceptibility to cyber threats and potential misalignment with human values. Many of the risks and benefits are heavily interconnected as technological attributes directly affect how AI functions in nuclear operations, particularly in decision-making processes. This, in turn, affects states’ perceptions as well as the countermeasures they might employ, and ultimately, the balance of these elements determines how deterrence calculations shift.

This paper, by former ELN policy fellow Alice Saltini, highlights the need for a better assessment of risks and the establishment of thresholds for integration to prevent miscalculations and nuclear escalation, leading to potentially catastrophic outcomes. It proposes that the European Union leads international dialogue on AI risks in the nuclear domain in relevant international discussions, particularly at the REAIM Summits, integrates AI discussions into the Non-Proliferation Treaty framework, and commissions research to identify and manage high-risk AI applications.

It recommends that the European Union:

  • Leads international dialogue on AI risks in the nuclear domain in relevant international discussions, particularly at the REAIM Summits.
  • Integrates AI discussions into the Non-Proliferation Treaty framework.
  • Commissions research to identify and manage high-risk AI applications.

Read the policy brief here.

The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated in this policy brief represent the views of the author rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.

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