Dr Rishi Paul is the Nuclear Deterrence and Risk Reduction Programme Lead. Previously, he was a Senior Policy Fellow at the ELN, where he led the organisation’s work on nuclear deterrence, with a focus on how cognitive bias and risk perception shape nuclear decision-making and escalation dynamics. His research examines adversary escalation logics and the risks arising from misperception, misjudged risk tolerance, and cross-domain pressures.
At ELN, Rishi designs and delivers multi-year research programmes that integrate behavioural insights into the study of nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, helping to reframe how escalation risk is assessed in contemporary nuclear policy debates, with particular attention to cross-regional escalation dynamics linking the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theatres. In recent years, he has also led projects examining the cumulative effects of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) on nuclear decision-making, including modelling their impacts on aspects of high-level decision-making using AI and co-developing a baseline digital twin to support structured analysis. He is also a co-author of the Guardrails and Self-Assessment (GSA) Framework, which is designed to help policymakers identify, manage, and reduce nuclear risks associated with technological change.
Prior to joining ELN, Rishi was a Policy Fellow and Programme Manager at the British American Security Information Council (BASIC), where he led work on India and Pakistan’s nuclear responsibilities, the Stockholm Initiative, and supported the organisation’s strategic development. During his tenure at BASIC, Rishi also served as Clerk to the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Global Security and Non-Proliferation, setting discussion agendas and convening parliamentary briefings and stakeholder engagement on nuclear and wider global security issues.
Rishi’s work has received international recognition. In 2022, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) awarded him First Prize in its global security competition for innovation aimed at averting nuclear use in crisis and war. He regularly briefs policymakers and military audiences, has briefed high-level Track 1 meetings, including the Creating an Environment for Nuclear Disarmament (CEND) Working Group 2, the NATO Defence College in Rome, submitted written evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations, and contributes commentary to international media.
Rishi holds an MA in Strategic Studies and a PhD from the University of Leeds. His doctoral research examined U.S. nuclear strategy and the challenges posed by integrating ballistic missile defence into nuclear doctrine — work that continues to inform his research on escalation control and strategic stability.
Expertise:
- Nuclear deterrence and escalation dynamics
- Cognitive bias, risk perception, and nuclear decision-making
- Artificial intelligence and the intersection with the nuclear domain (including AI-enabled decision support, early warning, and escalation risk)
- Nuclear doctrines and strategies of the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, and China
- India–Pakistan nuclear doctrine and posture
- NATO
- Cross-regional crisis and escalation dynamics
- Nuclear risk reduction and escalation control
- Emerging and disruptive technologies and strategic stability
- Missile defence and strategic stability
- Nuclear non-proliferation and arms control
