Russia and European Security
Russia’s war against Ukraine has fundamentally destabilised European security and sharply increased the risks of escalation and wider conflict. The prospect of direct military confrontation between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community is now more acute, more sustained, and more unpredictable than at any point in decades, while the broader European security order continues to fragment under pressure.
Staff Contacts
The ELN’s Russia and European Security Programme addresses these risks by combining forward-looking analysis with practical policy options to manage confrontation and shape a more stable long-term security environment. It examines the evolving European security architecture, including the future role of institutions such as the OSCE and the prospects for arms control. At the same time, it analyses Russian foreign and security policy, assessing threat perceptions, military posture, and strategic intent across Europe and Eurasia.
A core focus of the programme is identifying realistic pathways to reduce escalation risks, strengthen crisis management, and support political processes under conditions of deep mistrust. Through sustained Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogue, it convenes policymakers, experts, and practitioners from across Europe, the United States, and beyond, preserving channels of communication, testing policy-relevant ideas, and working to prevent further deterioration in European security.
Programme Publications
Commentary
Understanding Hungary’s political earthquake and the rise of Péter Magyar
Balázs Csuday writes that Péter Magyar’s landslide victory has upended Hungary’s political order, opening the door to constitutional conflict, institutional upheaval, and a major foreign policy reset after 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule. The result could reshape Hungary’s relationship with the European Union and reverberate across Europe’s populist right.
Related content
Commentary
Why the NPT and TPNW must work together to prevent nuclear insecurity
At a time of heightened nuclear risk, the credibility of the non-proliferation regime increasingly depends not on treating the NPT and TPNW as rival models, but on finding ways for them to function in a mutually reinforcing way. As Simabatu Mayele Sims Nono writes, reshaping the NPT-TPNW relationship can turn it from a source of fragmentation into a lever for stabilisation.
Commentary
ELN reflections: 2026 NPT Review Conference
Amid mounting geopolitical tensions and deepening scepticism about multilateral diplomacy, diplomats, experts, and civil society representatives are gathering in New York for the 2026 NPT Review Conference to confront growing divisions over disarmament and non-proliferation. In these reflections, ELN staff who attended the RevCon examine the mounting risks facing the global nuclear order, and consider what they reveal about the future of the NPT regime.
Podcast
The Women Leaders podcast: Hungary and the defeat of illiberal democracy
With the Tisza party taking office in Hungary, attention has turned to how this victory was achieved – not as an abstract political question, but through the lived experiences of Hungarians who opposed Viktor Orbán’s illiberal democracy and came together to defeat it. Eva Cartwright and Flora Hevesi, two such activists, join us for a dynamic and heartfelt conversation exploring what life under Fidesz really meant in Hungary’s cities and villages, and how victory was finally achieved.
Commentary
Reflections on the JCPOA: why it worked and why it matters now
On the anniversary of President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, former European Commission Vice-President Catherine Ashton reflects on the diplomacy behind the landmark JCPOA agreement, why it worked, and what its collapse means today. Ashton argues that collective leadership and renewed European engagement remain essential to securing long-term regional stability.
Commentary
Understanding Hungary’s political earthquake and the rise of Péter Magyar
Balázs Csuday writes that Péter Magyar’s landslide victory has upended Hungary’s political order, opening the door to constitutional conflict, institutional upheaval, and a major foreign policy reset after 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule. The result could reshape Hungary’s relationship with the European Union and reverberate across Europe’s populist right.
Commentary
Is this the end of automatic Atlanticism in Germany?
Germany is entering a new era in its relationship with the United States. The old Atlanticist reflex has not disappeared, however it no longer reflects the instincts of the next generation of senior officials. For them, the moral clarity of the Cold War is not the starting point. It is an era of disruption, doubt, and strategic volatility. Berlin should take this into account, writes Vincent Tadday. The future of the transatlantic relationship will not be secured by waiting for the past to return.