Russia and European Security
Russia’s war against Ukraine has fundamentally destabilised European security and sharply increased the risks of escalation and wider conflict. The prospect of direct military confrontation between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic community is now more acute, more sustained, and more unpredictable than at any point in decades, while the broader European security order continues to fragment under pressure.
Staff Contacts
The ELN’s Russia and European Security Programme addresses these risks by combining forward-looking analysis with practical policy options to manage confrontation and shape a more stable long-term security environment. It examines the evolving European security architecture, including the future role of institutions such as the OSCE and the prospects for arms control. At the same time, it analyses Russian foreign and security policy, assessing threat perceptions, military posture, and strategic intent across Europe and Eurasia.
A core focus of the programme is identifying realistic pathways to reduce escalation risks, strengthen crisis management, and support political processes under conditions of deep mistrust. Through sustained Track 1.5 and Track 2 dialogue, it convenes policymakers, experts, and practitioners from across Europe, the United States, and beyond, preserving channels of communication, testing policy-relevant ideas, and working to prevent further deterioration in European security.
Programme Publications
Podcast
The Women Leaders podcast: Security, cooperation, and conflict with Rose Gottemoeller
As summer unfolds across much of Europe and the US, war continues to devastate Ukraine and fuel instability across the Middle East. Former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller joins ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El to unpack the narratives behind Russia’s war against Ukraine, the legacy of the Cold War, and the strategic misunderstandings that shaped today’s security landscape.
Podcast
The Women Leaders podcast: The new context in Ukraine 2026
As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine drags on and battlefield realities continue to evolve, ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El is joined by Hanna Shelest and Yuliia Shaipova from Ukrainian Prism to examine the growing toll the war is taking on Russia and how Ukraine has continued to innovate in the face of Russian attacks.
Commentary
Understanding Hungary’s political earthquake and the rise of Péter Magyar
Balázs Csuday writes that Péter Magyar’s landslide victory has upended Hungary’s political order, opening the door to constitutional conflict, institutional upheaval, and a major foreign policy reset after 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule. The result could reshape Hungary’s relationship with the European Union and reverberate across Europe’s populist right.
Related content
Commentary
Is the Trump administration committed to the defence of NATO?
Given Donald Trump’s unpredictability over what he may or may not do regarding the US presence in and support for NATO, there are a range of possible consequences arising from his quixotic actions for America’s longest-standing alliance. David Richards and Harlan Ullman unpack how Europe can compensate for any major US force reductions and what a revitalised NATO might look like.
Commentary
Burnham’s Britain: Continuity, defence, and a new industrial strategy?
Former UK Labour MP Madeleine Moon argues that Britain’s political instability is the product of profound social and geopolitical change. With Andy Burnham in Number 10, Britain must think simultaneously about defence, the economy, technological advantage, and democratic institutions while building on reforms to pursue a whole-of-society approach to national resilience.
Report
State-to-state cooperation between NATO and IP4 member states: Successes, constraints, and prospects for crisis prevention
This is the third report in a three-part series produced under a NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme project examining how NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners can strengthen cross-regional crisis prevention and strategic cooperation. It examines how bilateral and minilateral partnerships can strengthen practical cooperation between NATO and Indo-Pacific partner states.
Report
Institutional cooperation between NATO and IP4: Expectations, constraints, and cooperation prospects
This is the second report in a three-part series produced under a NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme project examining how NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners can strengthen cross-regional crisis prevention and strategic cooperation. It explores the opportunities and constraints shaping institutional cooperation between NATO and the Indo-Pacific 4 (IP4).
Report
Managing cross-theatre escalation: Perceptions, flashpoints, and constraints on strategic cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific
This is the first report in a three-part series produced under a NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme project examining how NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners can strengthen cross-regional crisis prevention and strategic cooperation. It explores the strategic dynamics, perceptions, and escalation risks increasingly linking the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific.
Commentary
What does Andy Burham’s new cabinet mean for UK foreign policy?
Andy Burnham has signalled that he wants to focus his energies on domestic policy, and his Cabinet appointments suggest he is willing to delegate responsibility to his top team – though that does not come without risks, write Jack Pannell and Ed Arnold. The experience of recent Prime Ministers suggests foreign policy requires the direct attention and energy of the Prime Minister.