Nuclear Deterrence and Risk Reduction
Nuclear deterrence continues to underpin Euro-Atlantic security, but the environment in which it operates is becoming more complex and volatile. Intensifying geopolitical competition, rapid technological change, and increasing integration of conventional and nuclear postures are reshaping deterrence dynamics, while compressed decision-making timelines heighten the risks of misperception and unintended escalation.
Staff Contacts
Deterrence is often treated as stable and predictable. In practice, it is shaped by human judgement, cognitive bias, organisational pressures, and ambiguous signalling. Measures intended to reassure or stabilise can be interpreted in unintended ways, creating escalation pathways that are difficult to anticipate or control.
The ELN’s Nuclear Deterrence and Risk Reduction Programme examines how deterrence functions in real-world conditions, focusing on how decision-makers interpret signals, assess risk, and make escalation judgements under uncertainty. It brings together policy analysis, behavioural insights, and practitioner experience to identify where risks are most acute.
Through research, dialogue, and convening, the programme translates analysis into practical recommendations shaped with those directly responsible for security decision-making. By leveraging ELN’s unique network and access, it drives real-world policy impact, working to reduce nuclear risks, strengthen crisis management, and help prevent catastrophic conflict.
Programme Publications
Commentary
Is the Trump administration committed to the defence of NATO?
Given Donald Trump’s unpredictability over what he may or may not do regarding the US presence in and support for NATO, there are a range of possible consequences arising from his quixotic actions for America’s longest-standing alliance. David Richards and Harlan Ullman unpack how Europe can compensate for any major US force reductions and what a revitalised NATO might look like.
Commentary
Burnham’s Britain: Continuity, defence, and a new industrial strategy?
Former UK Labour MP Madeleine Moon argues that Britain’s political instability is the product of profound social and geopolitical change. With Andy Burnham in Number 10, Britain must think simultaneously about defence, the economy, technological advantage, and democratic institutions while building on reforms to pursue a whole-of-society approach to national resilience.
Report
State-to-state cooperation between NATO and IP4 member states: Successes, constraints, and prospects for crisis prevention
This is the third report in a three-part series produced under a NATO Science for Peace and Security (SPS) Programme project examining how NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners can strengthen cross-regional crisis prevention and strategic cooperation. It examines how bilateral and minilateral partnerships can strengthen practical cooperation between NATO and Indo-Pacific partner states.
Related Content
Commentary
Is the Trump administration committed to the defence of NATO?
Given Donald Trump’s unpredictability over what he may or may not do regarding the US presence in and support for NATO, there are a range of possible consequences arising from his quixotic actions for America’s longest-standing alliance. David Richards and Harlan Ullman unpack how Europe can compensate for any major US force reductions and what a revitalised NATO might look like.
Podcast
Ok, Doomer! podcast: Nuclear bombs and bots
The ELN’s Ok, Doomer! podcast is back. Listen in to learn how emerging technologies are reshaping nuclear weapons policy. Experts discuss the risks and benefits of artificial intelligence and other disruptive technologies, historical technological shifts, changing threat perceptions, and the importance of training military personnel to recognise AI-driven biases. Hosted by the ELN’s Deputy Executive Director, Bekki Field.
Commentary
Staff Reflections: the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki today
Eighty-one years after the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, what questions should the arms control community be asking itself? In this collection of reflections, ELN staff consider how the anniversary informs their work and what it means to keep the human consequences of nuclear weapons at the centre of debates on international security.