It remains unclear whether the US President had requested a full risk assessment before deciding to launch airstrikes against Iran, or whether the option of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz was highlighted then. However, the reality of the closed Strait, the global economic impact, and the resulting rapidly changing international order highlight a core reality: our lives are underpinned by risk.
From individual issues of choice, such as investments or acquisitions, to state-level realities, such as pandemics, wars, or climate change, understanding and assessing risk is integral to both events and decision-making. Ultimately, all events are outcomes of decisions, based (or not) on an assessment of risk.
Assessing risk is a vast and growing field, made ever more complex and expansive by the introduction of technology, especially AI. In our rapidly changing reality, understanding the possibilities and consequences of a decision is no longer a simple act of sequencing but also of modelling and so much more. To best understand these complex and rapidly evolving concepts, Tinatin Japaridze, YGLN member and Director of Geopolitics at Anadyr Horizon joins ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El in a fabulous and philosophical discussion.
This episode was recorded on 3 June 2026.
Chapters:
- Role of AI in decision-making
- Understanding geopolitical risk and cascading effects
- Changes and shifts in the world order over the past 20 years
- Fine lines and interdependencies between technologies and humans
Mentions
- Anadyr Horizon website LinkedIn
- Large language models (LLM) – European data protection supervisor
- 1914: The unspoken assumptions of James Joll – War on the Rocks article
Follow
- Tinatin Japaridze LinkedIn, X/Twitter
- Ilana Bet-El
- Instagram @women_leaders_podcast
- Listen to this episode on our YouTube channel
Credits
- Production: Florence Ferrando
- Music: Let Good Times Roll, RA from #Uppbeat (free for Creators!): https://uppbeat.io/t/ra/let-good-times-roll License code: ZXIIIJUU2ISPZIJT
The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated above represent the views of the authors rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.
Image credit: Florence Ferrando
